疫情冲击下的财政政策选择——基于非线性NK-DSGE模型分析

Fiscal Policy Choices under the Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic: Analysis Based on Nonlinear NK-DSGE Model

面对新冠肺炎疫情反复冲击,我国进入疫情防控新阶段,此背景下财政政策合理选择对稳定经济发展至关重要。在包含异质性家庭和企业的非线性新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡(NK-DSGE)模型中引入服务消费效用冲击,量化新冠肺炎疫情对宏观经济的影响,对比疫情冲击下各项财政政策的实施效果和乘数效应。研究结果表明,新冠肺炎疫情冲击一方面作用于服务部门影响企业的进入与退出,对宏观经济产生负面影响,另一方面引起失业率上升导致家庭借贷违约率提升,进而加剧了金融风险与经济衰退。积极财政政策在应对疫情冲击过程中起到逆周期调节作用,有效地缓解了经济衰退。通过对比增加政府购买、减免税收及政府转移支付政策的调控效果发现,在稳定家庭收入和促进消费增长方面,减税政策应对疫情冲击最有效,而在促进产出和就业方面,增加政府购买支出的财政政策更有效。研究结论为疫情防控的财政干预提供理论参考。

In the face of the repeated impact of the COVID-19,China has entered a new stage of epidemic prevention and control.Under this background, the rational choice of fiscal policy is crucial to stabilize economic development.By introducing service consumption utility shocks in the nonlinear NK-DSGE model with heterogeneous households and firms, this paper quantitatively simulates the impact of the COVID-19 on the macro economy and compares the implementation effects and multiplier effects of various fiscal policies under the impact of the epidemic.The results show that, on the one hand, the COVID-19 pandemic affects the entry and exit of firms through the service sector, which in turn has a negative impact on the macro economy;On the other hand, the COVID-19 has caused an increase in unemployment and the default rate of household loans, and further aggravates financial risks and economic recession.Proactive fiscal policies play a counter-cyclical role in coping with the impact of the epidemic and effectively alleviated the economic recession.By comparing the regulatory effects of increased government purchases, tax cuts and government transfer payments, it is found that in terms of stabilizing household income and promoting consumption growth, the tax reduction policy is most effective to deal with the impact of COVID-19,while in terms of promoting output and employment growth, the fiscal policy of increasing government purchase expenditure is more effective.The research conclusions provide theoretical reference for financial intervention of epidemic prevention and control.