财政政策产出非对称性效应研究——基于金融周期视角

Research on the Asymmetric Output Effect of Fiscal Policy——Based on the Perspective of Financial Cycle

尽管财政政策的产出效应在不同金融周期条件下可能存在非对称性,但国内仍缺乏相关实证研究。基于此本文运用平滑转移向量自回归(STVAR)模型实证分析了1996Q1—2019Q4我国财政总量支出与财政分类支出在金融周期不同阶段的产出效应,并就我国财政政策的金融周期特征进行了识别。结果发现:与金融繁荣阶段相比,财政总量支出与财政分量支出的产出效应在金融衰退阶段更强;在金融繁荣阶段,财政分量支出的产出效应为负;财政投资支出的产出效应要大于财政消费支出;我国财政政策不论是在全国层面还是省级层面均表现出明显的顺金融周期特征。有鉴于此,逆金融周期的财政调节与合理的财政支出结构,有助于财政当局提高财政资金的配置效率与财政政策的实施效果。

Although the output effect of fiscal policy may asymmetric under different financial cycle conditions, there is still a lack of relevant empirical research in China.Based on this, this paper uses the Smooth Transfer Vector Autoregression(STVAR)model to empirically analyze the output effects of Chinese fiscal aggregate expenditure and fiscal classified expenditure in different stages of the financial cycle from 1996Q1 to 2019Q4,and identifies the financial cycle characteristics of Chinese fiscal policy.The results show that: compared with the financial boom stage, the output effect of the fiscal total expenditure and the fiscal component expenditure is stronger in the financial recession stage;in the financial boom stage, the output effect of the fiscal component expenditure is negative;the output effect of fiscal investment expenditure is greater than that of fiscal consumption expenditure;Chinese fiscal policy shows obvious pro-financial cycle characteristics both at the national level and at the provincial level.In view of this, fiscal adjustment against the financial cycle and a reasonable fiscal expenditure structure will help the financial authorities improve the efficiency of the allocation of fiscal funds and the implementation effect of fiscal policies.