环境规制、数字普惠金融与城市产业升级——基于空间溢出效应与调节效应的分析

Environmental Regulation, Digital Inclusive Finance and Urban Industrial Upgrading——Analysis Based on Spatial Spillover Effect and Regulation Effect

基于2011-2017年我国269个地级市面板数据,本文运用空间杜宾模型分析环境规制与数字普惠金融对城市产业升级的空间影响,并探讨数字普惠金融在环境规制影响产业升级过程中的调节效应与门槛效应。结果表明:环境规制、数字普惠金融对产业结构升级、产业结构高级化存在正向促进作用,同时存在空间溢出效应,但两者对产业结构合理化影响并不显著,区域分析表明各地区因发展水平有所差异而导致产业结构对两者的反应呈现异质性。数字普惠金融是环境规制影响产业结构升级的重要调节变量,对本地区和其他地区在环境规制影响产业优化及高级化进程中产生显著正向调节作用,但其对产业结构合理化的调节效应并不明显。环境规制影响产业结构调整升级存在显著的数字普惠金融门槛效应,当数字普惠金融发展水平达到一定阈值之后,环境规制对产业结构升级促进作用将更明显。

Based on the panel data of 269 prefecture level cities in China from 2011 to 2017,this paper uses Spatial Durbin model to analyze the spatial impact of environmental regulation and digital Inclusive Finance on industrial structure upgrading,and discusses the regulatory effect and threshold effect of digital Inclusive Finance in the process of environmental regulation affecting industrial upgrading.The results show that:environmental regulation and digital Inclusive Finance have a positive role in promoting the upgrading and advancement of industrial structure,and there is a spatial spillover effect,but they have no significant impact on the rationalization of industrial structure.Regional analysis shows that due to the difference of development level,the response of industrial structure to them is heterogeneous;Digital Inclusive Finance is an important regulatory variable for environmental regulation to affect the upgrading of industrial structure.It plays a significant positive regulatory role in the process of the upgrading and advancement of industrial structure affected by environmental regulation in local region and other regions,but its regulatory effect on the rationalization of industrial structure is not obvious;Environmental regulation has a significant threshold effect on the upgrading of industrial structure.When the development level of digital Inclusive Finance reaches a certain threshold,the role of environmental regulation in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure will be more obvious.