不确定性下的反倾销更严重了吗?——来自23个经济体的经验证据

Is Anti-dumping under Uncertainty more Serious?——Empirical Evidence from 23 Economies

世界石油和粮食危机、恐怖主义、流行性疾病危机和金融危机频繁爆发,逆全球化浪潮席卷而来,都增加了世界经贸环境的不确定性。通过文献梳理本文发现,不确定性条件下,不受贸易协定约束的临时性贸易壁垒措施将成为各国应对风险、保护其国内经贸发展的重要手段。通过对包括中国、美国和英国等在内的23个经济体的实证研究,本文发现,不确定性条件下,出口国被发起反倾销调查的可能性有显著增加,且出口国在反倾销案件中败诉的可能性也将显著提升。此外,不确定性对反倾销的影响具有滞后效应,市场经济地位和出口单位价值都将影响出口国在反倾销调查中的待遇。结合本文的研究结论和反倾销实践,本文认为,出口企业在应对反倾销时,应着重关注风险和不确定性显著增加后的一至两年,谨慎选择出口时机和出口目的国。

The world oil and food crisis,terrorism,epidemic disease crisis and financial crisis have frequently exploded,and the wave of counter-globalization has swept the world.These have increased the uncertainty of the world economic and trade environment.Through the literature,this paper finds that under the condition of uncertainty,non-tariff barrier measures not subject to trade agreements will become an important means for countries to cope with risks and protect their domestic economic and trade development.Through empirical research on 23 economies including China,the United States and the United Kingdom,this paper finds that under the uncertainty conditions,the possibility of an anti-dumping investigation suffered by exporting countries has increased significantly,and the possibility of losing for exporting country in anti-dumping cases has also increased significantly.In addition,the impact of uncertainty on anti-dumping has a lag effect,and the market economy status and export unit value will affect the treatment towards exporting countries in anti-dumping investigations.Combined with the research conclusions and anti-dumping practices,this paper argues that export companies should focus on one to two years after the significant increase in risks and uncertainties in response to anti-dumping.