中国农业全要素生产率的再测算:基于KLEMS-TFP视角

Recalculation of China’s Agricultural Total Factor Productivity: From the Perspective of KLEMS-TFP

本文采用KLEMS方法和中国经济行业生产率数据,分析中国农业在1980-2016年间的KLEMS型全要素生产率(TFP)的变动情况。结果表明:(1)基于总产出生产函数的KLEMS-TFP在整个时期的年均增长率为1.74%,对总产出的增长贡献为30.53%;(2)中间投入和TFP是农业总产出增长的两大动力来源,中间投入的增长主要依赖于材料投入的增长,而不是以信息、技术和知识等为主的服务投入的增长,这不仅不利于农业增长模式的转变,也不利于释放出富余劳动力从而推动中国经济产业结构的进一步升级;(3)基于双平减方法的农业增加值增长波动性较大,原因可能在于所用价格指数更能真实反映投入要素的价格波动。高估产出增长并低估投入增长是造成现有研究高估农业TFP增长率的主要原因。

This paper adopts the KLEMS method and China Industry Productivity dataset to analyze the changes in KLEMS-type total factor productivity(TFP)of China’s agriculture from 1980 to 2016.The results show that:(1)KLEMS-TFP based on the gross output production function has an average annual growth rate of 1.74%throughout the period,and its contribution to the growth of gross output is 30.53%;(2)Intermediate input and TFP are the two main sources of growth of agricultural gross output.The growth of intermediate input mainly depends on the growth of material inputs,rather than the growth of service inputs based on information,technology,and knowledge.This is not only detrimental to the transformation of agricultural growth models,but also harmful to free up surplus labor to promote the further upgrading of industry structure of Chinese economy;(3)The growth of agricultural value added based on the double deflation method is much more volatile,which is probably due to the price deflator that can more truly reflect the price fluctuations of input factors.Overestimation of output growth and underestimation of input growth are the main reasons that cause the current studies to overestimate the growth rate of agricultural TFP.