基于空间视角的东道国基础设施水平对中国OFDI的影响研究——基于“一带一路”沿线64个国家的实证分析

The Empirical Study on the Impact of Host Country Infrastructure on China’s OFDI Based on the Spatial Perspective: Taking Countries Along the “Belt and Road”as A Case

本文基于2003-2018年中国对"一带一路"沿线64个国家的对外直接投资数据,利用空间计量模型,实证检验了中国OFDI(对外直接投资)可能存在的空间效应,考察了东道国基础设施对中国OFDI的影响。同时,本文还对不同收入国家进行分组,以检验基础设施对中国OFDI的异质性。结果发现,中国OFDI存在显著的空间效应,即中国对沿线国家的OFDI之间存在显著的互补效应,而且中国OFDI还受到第三国不可观测因素的推动作用;东道国基础设施水平的改善能显著拉动中国OFDI的增加,随着东道国整体基础设施水平的提高,预计中国对沿线国家的投资规模将有大幅增加;仅在中低收入国家和高收入国家,中国OFDI存在显著的空间效应,而在低收入和中高收入国家则不存在明显的空间效应;仅在高收入国家,其基础设施的改善能显著带动中国OFDI的增加。鉴于此,中国企业在"走出去"过程中,要重视多边关系的协调发展,充分发挥基础设施在对外投资过程中的主导性作用,同时还要深入评估东道国的投资环境,以降低投资风险。

Based on the data of China’s OFDI in 64 countries along the"Belt and Road"from 2003 to 2018,this paper uesd spatial econometric models to empirically test the spatial effects of China’s OFDI,and examine the impact of host country infrastructure on China’s OFDI.At the same time,this article also grouped different income countries to test the heterogeneity of infrastructure to China’s OFDI.The results show that China’s OFDI has a significant spatial effect,that is,China’s OFDI has a significant complementary effect and China’s OFDI is also driven by unobservable factors in the third country;the improvement of the host country’s infrastructure level can significantly stimulate the increase of China’s OFDI.With the improvement of the infrastructure level of the host country,China’s OFDI is expected to increase substantially;Only in low-middle income countries and high income countries,China’s OFDI has a significant spatial effect,while in low income and middle-high income countries,there is no obvious spatial effect;Only in high income countries,the improvement of infrastructure can significantly drive the increase of China’s OFDI.In view of this,Chinese entrepreneurs should attach importance to the coordinated development of multilateral relations in the process of"go globally",give full play to the leading role of infrastructure in the process of investment,and assessment of the host country’s investment environment to reduce investment risks.