摘要
本文以财政竞争、资源错配与经济波动的内在联系为出发点,通过构建含有共同因子的动态空间杜宾面板数据模型和中介效应模型,基于Bailey等人(2016)提出的两步法的估计思路,实证检验了财政竞争对经济波动影响的直接效应和间接效应。研究发现,经济波动和资源错配在时间维度具有路径依赖特征,在空间维度具有空间集聚特征;财政竞争是导致经济波动的重要诱因之一,其对经济波动的双重作用路径均显著,不仅可以直接放大经济波动,而且通过引发资源错配间接加剧波动态势。据此,为实现宏观经济稳定发展,本文提出完善区域性经济波动的联合监测预警机制、创新地方政府官员的政绩考核制度、充分发挥市场机制在资源配置中起主导性作用等对策建议。
Starting from the internal connection of fiscal competition,resource misallocation and economic fluctuations,by constructing a dynamic spatial dubin panel data model and a mediation effect model with common factors,based on the estimation idea of the two-step method proposed by Bailey et al.(2016),we empirically tested the direct and indirect effects of fiscal competition on economic fluctuations.We found that economic fluctuations and resource misallocation all have path dependence characteristics in the time dimension,and spatial agglomeration characteristics in the space dimension.Fiscal competition has dual significant effects on economic fluctuations and is one of the important causes of economic fluctuations.It can not only directly aggravate economic fluctuations,but also cause economic fluctuations to intensify by inducing resource misallocation.Accordingly,in order to achieve the stable economic development,we made suggestions that improve the joint monitoring and warning mechanism of regional economic fluctuations,innovate the performance evaluation system of local government officials,and give full play to the leading role of the market mechanism in optimizing resource allocation.
出处
《经济问题探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期14-26,共13页
Inquiry Into Economic Issues
基金
2018国家自科基金面上项目“财政竞争导致资源空间错配的条件、机制及其政策优化研究”(71873045)
2017国家社科基金青年项目“惩罚机制下公共品自愿供给的组合性均衡评价及其实验研究”(17CGL056)
2019湖南省教育科学“十三五”规划项目“湖南省高等教育与科技创新的耦合协调关系测度及提升对策研究”(XJK19QJG001)
关键词
财政竞争
资源错配
经济波动
共同因子
动态空间杜宾面板数据模型
Fiscal competition
Resource misallocation
Economic fluctuations
Common factors
Dynamic spatial dubin panel data model
