钢铁行业供求失衡与产能过剩诱发机制问题研究——基于与房地产业关联性视角的分析

Research on the mechanism of supply and demand imbalance and overcapacity of iron and steel industry——Analysis based on the relevance between steel industry and real estate industry

多年来,中国钢铁行业被认为一直存在较严重的产能过剩,但其产能却逆宏观调控而持续增长,这一现象值得深思。房地产开发是最重要的钢材使用领域之一,有必要考察房地产开发对钢材消费需求的拉动作用及房地产宏观调控对钢材供求失衡的影响。通过对钢材生产的房地产开发弹性及二者动态关联性的分析,发现房地产开发活动引致的旺盛需求是近年来中国钢铁产能持续增长的重要支撑,而房地产宏观调控引发的供求失衡是引发产能过剩问题的关键诱因。基于与房地产业关联性视角的分析,对中国钢铁行业供求失衡与产能过剩诱发机制给出了一个较合理的解释,也为探寻中国钢铁行业产能过剩化解之道提供了方向。

For many years,the Chinese steel industry has been considered to have a serious overcapacity,but its production capacity has continued to grow Contrary to macroeconomic regulation and control.This phenomenon is worth pondering.Real estate development activities are one of the most important areas of steel use.It is necessary to examine the impact of real estate development activities on the demand for steel consumption and the impact of real estate macro-control on the imbalance between supply and demand of steel.Through the analysis of the real estate development flexibility of steel production and the dynamic correlation between the two,it is found that the strong demand caused by real estate development activities is an important support for the continuous growth of China’s steel production capacity in recent years,and the imbalance between supply and demand caused by real estate macro-control is the key incentive causing overcapacity.Based on the analysis of the perspective of the real estate industry,it can provide a more reasonable explanation for the imbalance between supply and demand and overcapacity in China’s steel industry,and also provide a direction for exploring the solution of China’s steel industry overcapacity.