人口结构特征演化对医疗资源需求的影响——基于不等间隔APC模型的研究

Effect of the evolution of demographic structure characteristics to demand for medical resource based on APC model with unequal intervals

本文基于不等间隔APC模型,分析人口结构的年龄效应、时期效应和队列效应对医疗资源需求的影响。结果表明,尽管年龄是影响医疗资源需求的重要因素,但微观层面就诊和住院需求差异明显;年老人口队列就诊需求显著高于年轻人口队列,就诊率有长期下降趋势;住院需求在年龄层面有较大的不确定性,年轻人口队列的波动性更大。

Basing on APC model with unequal intervals,the paper analyzes how the age,period and cohort affect the demand for medical resource.The results show that the age is important factor,however,the demand for visiting and admission are very different;for visiting rate,the old population cohort demand more visiting service than the young one,the visiting rate is decreasing in long time;the demand for admission is more uncertain,the young population cohorts are more fluctuating.