奥地利学派的货币与商业周期理论

Austrian Theory of Money and Business Cycles

在19世纪末,瑞典经济学家维克塞尔(Knut Wicksell)提出了"资本的自然利率"和"贷款利率"概念,并随之研究了二者的背离对近现代市场经济中实体经济部门的影响。受其影响,米塞斯(Ludwig von Mises)在1912年初创了奥地利学派的货币与商业周期理论。这一理论在哈耶克(Friedrich August von Hayek)那里得到了系统的阐述和发展,这就是以"哈耶克三角"所展示的奥地利学派的货币与商业周期理论。罗斯巴德(Murray N.Rothbard)对美国大萧条的理论分析基本还是在米塞斯和哈耶克的分析框架之内,但他更强调商业周期和美国大萧条是政府干预市场过程、美联储增加货币供给和错误的货币政策导致的结果。到了20世纪和21世纪之交,德索托(Jesús Huerta de Soto)从理论的、历史的、制度的乃至法律的视角,用新的材料和货币银行学的分析方法,深入细致地阐述了奥地利学派的商业周期理论。德索托发现,在没有社会公众自愿储蓄的前提下,商业银行无中生有地创造货币,这样的信用扩张导致的低利率,会刺激企业投资的扩张,产生大量不当投资,最后导致消费和投资结构的失衡和整个经济的周期性危机。

At the end of the 19th century,a Swedish economist Knut Wicksell coined the concepts of the natural rate interest on capital and the rate of interest on loans and consequently studied the impact of the deviation of the rate of interest from the natural rate on the price level and production.Following the Wicksellian theory,Ludwig von Mises initially developed the Austrian theory of money and business cycles in 1912.Mises’theory of money and business cycle was systemically elucidated by Friedrich August von Hayek,demonstrated by the Hayekian Triangle.Rothbard’s theory of business circle is basically within the framework of Mises’and Hayek’s theory but puts more emphasis on that the America’s Great Depression was due to the government’s intervention on market process and FED’s wrong monetary policy.In the turn of 20(th)and 21st centuries,a Spanish economist Jesús Huerta de Soto published his book of Money,Bank Credit and Economic Cycles,systematically elucidating the Austrian theory of economic cycles.De Soto finds that along with the increase in the quantity of money in circulation or an expansion of bank credit unbacked by voluntary saving,the real productive structure is inevitably distorted and recurrent economic crises and recessions result.