城镇化、生育水平下降与经济增长

Urbanization,Declining Fertility and Economic Growth

本文通过构建一个纳入城镇化的生育效应的两部门动态优化模型,考察城镇化对未来经济增长的影响,进一步探讨了城镇化是否越快越好等问题。依据现实可行参数模拟后发现:随着城镇化的推进,2018—2050年间我国经济增速将呈现出阶梯式下降的趋势,到2050年实际人均GDP将达到2.773万美元。进一步的模拟结果显示:由于城镇化会造成生育水平的下降,我国通过提升城镇化水平来推动长期经济增长的目标可能难以实现;如果在推进城镇化的进程中构建配套性生育支持政策,则在2050年前将使我国实际人均GDP增长率提高0.225%。这意味着若要通过提升城镇化水平来促进长期经济增长,则应建立配套性生育支持政策,以尽可能减少城镇化推进过程中对生育水平造成的负面影响。

By constructing a dynamic optimization model of two sectors considering the fertility effect of urbanization,this paper examines the impact of urbanization on future economic growth,and further answers the doubts such as the faster the urbanization is,the better the economic growth is.The simulation shows that:From 2018 to 2050,China’s economic growth showed a downward trend in a stepwise manner.Real per capita GDP reached$27,730 in 2050.Further simulation found that:due to the fertility level decline effect brought by urbanization,promoting long-term economic growth by upgrading the level of urbanization will be ineffective.If we construct fertility supporting policy to ensure that urban fertility level does not decline in urbanization,the real GDP growth rate will be increased by 0.225%on average by 2050.This means that if we want to promote economic growth through urbanization,we should construct fertility supporting policies to minimize the negative impact of urbanization on fertility.