财政政策与货币政策的动态调控效应——基于时变参数向量自回归模型的检验

THE DYNAMIC REGULATORY EFFECT OF FISCAL POLICY AND MONETARY POLICY——Test of Autoregressive Model Based on Time-varying Parameter Vector

本文廓清了财政政策与货币政策搭配动态调控宏观经济的机理,揭示了两者协调影响经济的"黑箱"机制及其在经济不同阶段的搭配方式;运用中国2004—2019年的经济季度数据,构建TVP-SV-VAR模型探究两类政策对宏观经济的调控效应。研究发现:财政政策与货币政策共同把控流动性"闸门"实现互动协调;财政政策搭配货币政策具有时变性,在整体上"同向发力"推动经济发展;两类政策对产出的影响并非始终如理论一致,在结构层面仍有优化靶向性操作的余地。

This paper clarifies the mechanism of dynamic macroeconomic regulation and control by the combination of fiscal policy and monetary policy,and reveals the"black box"mechanism of their coordinated influence on the economy and the ways of their combination in different stages of the economy.Using China’s quarterly economic data from 2004 to 2019,this paper constructs TVP-SV-VAR model to explore the effects of the two kinds of policies on macro-economy.The results show that fiscal policy and monetary policy jointly control the liquidity"gate"to achieve interactive coordination.The combination of fiscal policy and monetary policy is time-varying,which promotes economic development in the same direction as a whole.The impact of the two types of policies on output is not always consistent with the theory,and there is still room to optimize the targeted operation at the structural level.