目的国风险与出口商品质量

Demand Risk and Export Quality

本文主要研究目的国风险对出口商品质量的影响。理论上,本文在Borcherding和Silberberg(1978)的框架下阐述目的国风险对出口商品质量的影响机制,并得到目的国风险下降将提高出口到该市场上商品质量的结论。利用1985—2011年跨国面板数据,以出口国银行对进口国银行的贷款笔数作为出口国企业面临风险的代理变量,本文实证研究结果表明,目的国风险下降确实有利于提高出口商品质量,这与理论模型的结论一致。此外,实证研究还发现风险下降对商品质量存在异质性影响。本文的研究有利于理解中国的"品质洼地"现象,能为建设"制造强国"提供一定启示。

This paper tries to explain the"Washington Apple Effect"from the perspective of risk.Theoretically,we build a partial equilibrium model based on the skeleton of Borcherding and Silberberg(1978).Under assumptions of product price determined by cost and risk premium,and the elasticity of risk premium to risk is higher for product with higher quality,we have a proposition that decreasing risk will enhance quality of traded product.Empirically,our sample uses cross-border panel data with the period of 1985~2011,product quality estimated by the method proposed by Feenstra and Romalis(2014),and risk proxy estimated by syndicate bank loans between trade partners.The estimated results show that the declining of risk in the destination market will improve the quality of products exporting to the market,which is consistent with the conclusion of theoretical model.The above results hold for controlling different fixed effects,more possible bilateral affecting factors,and different proxies for the risk.In addition,we find that the higher risk destinations or the higher risk of products,the higher of the effect for declining risk on the quality of traded products.