通货膨胀预期与企业投融资期限错配

Inflation Expectation and the Mismatch of Investment and Financing Period

本文采用我国沪深上市公司2003—2017年间季度数据,研究了通货膨胀预期对企业投融资期限错配的影响及其经济后果。研究发现:通货膨胀预期上升,企业会调整资本结构,增加短期债务资本,并将更多资金配置到长期资产,使得企业资产负债表结构趋于激进;进一步研究发现,企业通货膨胀预期显著影响其商业信用短期融资以及投资性房地产长期投资决策。经济后果研究结论表明,进行了投融资期限错配激进调整的企业,未来资产的增值效应显著,不过这种增值效应具有时滞性。本文进一步打开了我国企业投融资期限结构错配形成机制的黑箱,有助于企业从战略高度审视投融资期限匹配问题。

According to the theory of term matching,the reasonable matching between investment and financing period is an important risk control measure in the process of enterprise value creation.The balance sheet structure formed by the symmetry of investment and financing period has a direct impact on liquidity risk,capital cost and agency risk.In reality,too radical balance sheet structural adjustment often leads to the mismatch of investment and financing period,which leads to the fracture of capital chain.For example,the former nickel industry leader gene nickel was forced to delist due to its failure to reasonably allocate the matching relationship between investment and financing period and blind use of short-term financing as the capital source of long-term assets.Previous studies have found that there is a serious investment and financing maturity mismatch phenomenon in Chinese enterprises,which makes enterprises face higher liquidity risk and debt agency cost.Based on the financing environment,the choice of financing tools and other capital market factors,these studies discuss the reasons for the term mismatch of Chinese enterprises.However,given the universality and volatility of inflation in macroeconomic development,is it possible for an enterprise to take the initiative to adjust its balance sheet structure based on its expectation of the future?This kind of micro behavior analysis framework based on macro-economy is not enough to study the mismatch of investment and financing period.Although the research based on the single dimension of capital structure or asset structure emphasizes the heterogeneous decision-making of enterprises under inflation expectations,it fails to solve the problem of the motivation of balance sheet structure adjustment from the two dimensions of investment structure and financing structure.Is there a choice based on inflation expectation in the high-risk matching between investment and financing period of Chinese enterprises?When the asset price will rise in the future under inflation expectation,enterprises will change their timing of asset investment to avoid the additional cost that may need to be paid in the future.If there is a radical adjustment of balance sheet structure based on inflation expectation,what economic consequences will this adjustment bring to the enterprise?Based on the monthly CPI and the index of future price expectation in the PBOC savings survey report,this paper uses the rolling regression OLS method to get the inflation expectation rate,and constructs the index of the mismatch of investment and financing period based on the basic structure of balance sheet and term structure theory.This paper uses the quarterly data of Listed Companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2003 to 2017 to study the impact of inflation expectation on the mismatch of investment and financing period and its economic consequences.It is found that when the inflation expectation is rising,the enterprise will adjust the capital structure and the enterprise will put more short-term debt capital into the long-term assets,which makes the balance sheet structure of the enterprise tend to be radical.This paper further studies the changing trend of short-term financing of commercial credit and investment property to provide micro-evidence of inflation expectation and balance sheet restructuring.The adjustment of the balance sheet structure under this kind of inflation has a significant value-added effect on the business performance of the enterprise,although it has a time-delay effect on the promotion of the business performance.Based on the macro-micro analysis framework,this paper opens the black box of the formation mechanism of the mismatch of investment and financing period,helps to enhance the understanding of enterprises’inflation expectation,and examines the term matching of enterprise’s capital structure and asset structure from a strategic perspective,so as to provide enlightenment for improving the ability of enterprises to adapt to the changing macro and micro environment.At the same time,based on the micro evidence of enterprises,this paper studies the effect of"explicit"inflation expectation on micro enterprise behavior,which is helpful to the choice of national regulatory policy based on inflation expectation management.