中亚五国粮食生产水足迹及水消耗量预测

Water Footprint and Water Consumption Prediction of Food Crop Production in Five Central Asian Countries

文章基于CropWAT模型、Kernel密度估计法和马尔科夫链等方法,测算1992—2017年中亚五国主要粮食作物水足迹和水消耗量及其相对状态转换概率,并预测了该五国2042年水消耗量相对状态的转换概率。研究发现:(1)小麦是该五国水消耗量最大的粮食作物,水消耗量其次的粮食作物,在哈萨克斯坦(哈国)、吉尔吉斯斯坦(吉国)和塔吉克斯坦(塔国)为大麦,在土库曼斯坦(土国)和乌兹别克斯坦(乌国)则是大米。(2)中亚五国粮食作物水消耗量呈现出高度消耗、正常消耗和低度消耗三种相对状态类型,趋于向正常消耗的相对状态转换,高度消耗和低度消耗向正常消耗转换的概率分别为57.14%和33.33%,相对状态的越级转换概率为0;哈国和土国维持原相对状态的概率高于中亚五国整体水平,相对状态的越级转换概率均为零。(3)预测到2042年,高度消耗与正常消耗、正常消耗与低度消耗之间相互转换概率提升,水消耗量向非正常消耗转换风险增加;乌国、塔国和吉国由低度消耗和正常消耗向高度消耗转换的概率高于中亚五国整体水平。

Based on the methods of CropWAT Model,Kernel Density Estimation and Markov Chain,the study calculates the water footprint,water consumption and the relative state transition probability of the major food crops in five Central Asian countries from 1992 to 2017,and predicts the relative state transition probability of water consumption by 2042.This study finds that:1)Wheat ranks first in the water consumption in five Central Asian countries,it has differences in the second-largest water consumption in five countries,barley ranks second in Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan,and rice ranks second in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.2)There are three types of the water consumption in relative status,which include High Consumption Status(HCS),Normal Consumption Status(NCS),and Low Consumption Status(LCS),and the HCS&NCS are both at a tendency toward NCS.Therefore the water consumption increase obviously.The transition probability from HCS and LCS to NCS are 57.14%and 33.33%respectively,and the probability of leapfrogging transition is zero.The transition probability of maintaining their original relative status is higher in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan than the whole probability of the five Central Asian countries,while the probability of leapfrogging transition is zero in each country among the five Central Asian countries.3)According to the prediction results from 2017 to 2042,it shows that the mutual transition probability between HCS and NCS will increase,the same goes for mutual transition between NCS and LCS.The study indicates the increase of HCS and LCS will lead to possible risks in the future.In Uzbekistan,Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan,the transition probability from LCS and NCS to HCS are higher than the corresponding data of the five Central Asian countries.