手机全球贸易网络演化及供需匹配关系——基于复杂网络的社团分析

Trade Network Evolution of Global Mobile Phone and Its Supply-Demand Relationship:Based on Community Analysis of Complex Networks

文章运用复杂网络的社团分析方法,探究1988—2018年(1G~4G时代)手机全球贸易的社团演变、社团间贸易匹配关系和比较优势、典型国家/地区供需关系问题。研究发现:(1)手机全球贸易历经4个阶段,形成欧非、亚洲、西太平洋3大社团,智能手机时代欧非社团手机品牌由盛转衰,但内部贸易紧密且一体化程度最高,亚洲与西太平洋社团占领全球出口市场份额,其中亚洲社团呈现幂律性与群簇性崛起。(2)亚洲与西太平洋社团出口竞争力较强且以产业内贸易为主,欧非社团较弱且以产业间贸易为主。亚洲与西太平洋社团贸易互补性与结合度最高,属于对称性相互依赖。欧非社团进口单方面依赖亚洲、西太平洋社团,属于非对称性依赖。(3)亚洲社团以单核心社区为主,网络负配性与富人俱乐部特征明显。欧非社团以多核心社区为主,成员地位相差较小但区域集中性强。西太平洋社团社区类型多样且同配性与无序性特征明显。(4)手机需求大国的进口来源相对单一,各国/地区进口占有率较高,进口贸易非对称依赖与垄断性极强;手机供给大国/地区的出口对象多元化现象明显,各国/地区出口占有率较低。

This paper conducts a community analysis of complex networks to explore the association evolution of mobile phone in global trade,match relations and comparative advantages of inter-association trade,and the supply-demand relationship of representative countries/regions from 1988 to 2018(1 G~4 G era).The results show that:1)The trade evolution process of the global mobile phone proceeds in four stages,forming three major global associations,namely,European-African association,Asian association and Western Pacific association.In the era of smart phone,the mobile phone brands of European-African association have turned from prosperity to decline,while Asian and Western Pacific associations occupy most of global export market share.2)The export competitiveness of Asian and Western Pacific associations are stronger and intra-industry trades are their dominant forms,while that of European-African association is relatively weaker and inter-industry trade is its dominant form.Conversely,the import of European-African association relies unilaterally on the export of Asian and Western Pacific associations.3)Asian association is dominated by singlecore communities and emerges the obvious characteristics of disassortative network and rich-club,while EuropeanAfrican association is dominated by multi-core communities,with little differences in the position of members but strong regional concentration.Moreover,the community types in the Western Pacific association are diverse,and the characteristics of network homogeneity and disorder are obvious.4)The import sources of the countries with mass mobile phone demands are relatively single and their import shares are relatively high.In the comparison,the export objects of mass mobile phone supply countries/regions are obviously diversified and scattered,and their export shares are relatively low.