区域贸易隐含碳排放时空变化及影响效应——以长江经济带为例

Trade Embodied Carbon Emissions and Its Effects of China:Take the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an Example

厘清长江经济带各省市的贸易隐含碳排放及其时空变化规律,对制定公平有效的碳减排方案具有重要意义。总贸易核算体系可以更加精确地测算隐含碳排放,基于此,文章运用多区域投入产出模型测算2007、2010、2012、2015年长江经济带11省市的调出隐含碳排放,并采用对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)对其进行影响效应分析。结果表明:(1)长江经济带总体调出隐含碳排放呈现逐步上升的趋势,各省市调出隐含碳排放大致呈现从西到东递增的趋势,且大部分省市的调出隐含碳排放量在2007—2012年处于上升的趋势,而在2012—2015年开始下降或是增速开始明显放缓。(2)分部门测算结果显示重制造业及能源工业部门的调出隐含碳排放的比重较大,且大部分部门的调出隐含碳排放呈现上升的趋势,但是从2012年开始,也有不少省市部门的调出隐含碳排放量开始下降,尤其是工业各部门下降趋势明显。(3)影响长江经济带调出隐含碳排放的影响因素中,规模效应始终是导致调出隐含碳排放量增加的主要因素,结构效应经历了由正效应向负效应再向正效应的转变,强度效应则经历了由负效应向正效应再向负效应的转变,各省市分部门的结果与总体结果大致相同。

Clarifying the embodied carbon emissions of regional trade in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is of great significance for the formulation of fair and effective carbon emission reduction programs,it can measure embodied carbon emissions more accurately by the gross trade accounting system.Based on the above,this article applies the multiregion input-output model to calculate the embodied carbon emissions of the 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2007,2010,2012 and 2015,and analyzes the influencing factors by the means of the logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI).The results showed that:1)Overall,the embodied carbon emissions was rising obviously in the Yangtze River Economic Belt;at the provicial and prefectural level,the embodied carbon emissions showed a increasing trend from the west to the east.It showed the upward trend in most provinces and cities from 2007 to 2012 and the downward trend in 2012-2015,or the growth rate began to slow down significantly in 2012-2015.2)Based on the subsector,it showed that the proportion of embodied carbon emissions relatively transferred from the heavy manufacturing and energy industry sectors,and most sectors’embodied carbon emission showed an upward trend.Since 2012,many sectors have begun to reduce their embodied carbon emissions,especially in the industrial sectors.3)Among the factors affecting the embodied carbon emission in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,the scale effect has always been the main factor leading to the increase in the amount of embodied carbon emissions;the structural effect experienced two changes:from positive effects to negative effects,from negative effects to positive effects;the intensity effect transformed from negative effects to positive effects and then to negative effects,sub-sector results are roughly the same as overall results.