环境规制对工业污染空间溢出的效应研究——来自全国285个城市的经验证据

Study on the Effect of Environmental Regulation on Industrial Pollution Spillover:Empirical Evidence from 285 Cities Nationwide

为揭示工业污染的空间溢出规律和环境规制的空间梯度效应,文章以2003—2016年我国285个城市数据为样本,运用热点分析、莫兰指数、空间杜宾模型、工具变量等方法分析环境规制与工业污染的空间关系。研究结果表明:①我国工业污染具有向环境规制弱地区集聚的趋势,主要集聚在华中和华北地区,工业污染热点区和次热点区由华中华北地区向全国其他地区蔓延,特别是广东、福建、浙江等地已有多个城市成为工业污染热点、次热点区。②工业污染具有明显的空间相关性,相较于2003年,2016年工业污染的空间依赖性更强,说明工业污染的空间溢出具有加剧的趋势,部分城市存在"污染避难所"的风险,需要引起地区政府的高度关注。③环境规制对工业污染具有明显的空间溢出效应,在距离上呈现为"倒U"型关系;在150 km范围圈内环境规制对工业污染的溢出具有显著的抑制作用,抑制作用随距离衰减;由于环境规制对污染企业具有"挤出效应",在150 km以外环境规制的作用发生逆转;450 km以外环境规制的溢出作用不再显著。

In order to reveal the spatial spillover rularity of industrial pollution and the spatial gradient effect of environmental regulation,this paper takes urban data of 285 cities in our country from 2003 to 2016 as a sample,and analyzes the spatial relationship between environmental regulation and industrial pollution by using hot spot analysis,Moran’s I,spatial Durbin model,tool variable and so on.The results show that:1)China’s industrial pollution tends to gather in areas with weak environmental regulation,mainly in central and northern China.Hot spots and sub-hot spots of industrial pollution spread from central and northern China to the whole country.In particular,many cities in Guangdong,Fujian and Zhejiang have become hot spots and sub-hot spots of industrial pollution.2)Industrial pollution has obvious spatial correlation.Compared with 2003,the spatial dependence of industrial pollution in 2016 is stronger,which indicates that the spatial spillover of industrial pollution has a tendency of aggravation,and some cities have the risk of"pollution shelter",which needs the high attention of the regional government.3)Environmental regulation has obvious spatial spillover effects on industrial pollution,which presents an inverted U shape in distance.Environmental regulation within a 150-kilometer radius has significant inhibitory effects on the overflow of industrial pollution.Because of the"crowding out effect"of environmental regulation on polluting enterprises,the effects of environmental regulation are reversed 150 kilometers away.Spillovers of environmental regulations from 450 km away are no longer significant.