新世纪以来黄河流域经济兴衰的原因初探——基于偏离—份额分析法

Causes of Economic Rise and Fall in the Yellow River Basin After 2000:Based on the Shift-Share Analysis Method

新世纪以来,黄河流域经济历经兴衰起落。文章以黄河流域92个市(州、盟)为研究单元,运用偏离—份额分析法及其空间拓展模型,分别从全流域、上中下游和城市层面初步探究2001—2017年黄河流域经济兴衰的原因。结果表明:2001—2017年,黄河流域GDP增长率总体呈倒U型,其中2001—2008年呈上升趋势,这主要得益于得天独厚的禀赋资源与传统产业的快速发展;受金融危机后出台的经济政策影响,2009—2012年流域增长波动较大;2013年起则呈现不断下降趋势,这主要是由第二产业结构性优势减弱、产业竞争力不足、第三产业竞争力下降所致。从上中下游来看,中游第二产业竞争力不足、下游三次产业中第一产业偏重,对区域的经济增长产生不利影响;下游第二产业、第三产业是驱动流域经济增长的重要力量。从城市层面来看,50%左右的市(州、盟)第一产业发展相对稳定,接近62%的市(州、盟)第二产业呈现出衰退态势,约66%的市(州、盟)第三产业处于蓬勃发展状态。文章提出面向生态保护与高质量发展应继续推进黄河流域产业结构转型升级,遵循上中下游及沿河两岸生态环境规律,整合生态系统、城市与产业转型发展,制定精准化黄河流域产业高质量发展政策。

Since 2000,the economy of the Yellow River Basin has experienced the ups and downs.This paper takes 92 cities(prefectures and leagues)in the Yellow River Basin as the research unit,and explores what causes the economic fluctuation in the Yellow River Basin from 2001 to 2017 at the three levels which are respectively macro,mediun and micro perspectives.It mainly uses the shift-share analysis method and spatial expansion model.The results show that,the GDP growth rate of the Yellow River Basin shows an inverted U-shaped pattern from 2001 to 2017.From 2001 to 2008,the economic growth was mainly due to advantaged natural resources and the rapid development of traditional industries.From 2009 to 2012,due to the impact of the economic policies introduced after the financial crisis,there were great fluctuations.Since 2013,the river basin economy has been on a downward trend,which is caused by three reasons:the structural advantages of the secondary industry have weakened,the industrial competitiveness is insufficient,and the competitiveness of the tertiary industry has declined.From the perspective of the upper,middle and lower reaches,the development of the middle and lower secondary industry and the lower primary industry need to be improved urgently,which has a great negative impact on the economic growth in the basin.The downstream secondary industry and the tertiary industry are developing rapidly and have become the key players to drive the regional economic growth.From the city level,it’s about 50%of the cities(prefectures and leagues)which primary industry development is relatively stable,nearly 62%of the cities(prefectures and leagues)which secondary industry shows a trend of decline,and about 66%of the cities(prefectures and leagues)which tertiary industry is in a state of vigorous development.Finally,it is proposed that,based on the ecological protection and high-quality development,it should promote the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure in the Yellow River Basin,follow the laws of the ecological environment in the upper,middle and lower reaches as well as both sides of the river,integrate the transformation and development of the ecosystem,cities and industries,and formulate precise high-quality development policies for the industries in the Yellow River Basin.