湖南省资源环境承载力预警评价与警情趋势分析

Early Warning Evaluation and Warning Trend Analysis of Resource and Environment Carrying Capacity in Hunan Province

基于资源环境承载力的内涵,从资源承载力、环境承载力、生态承载力三方面构建湖南省资源环境承载力预警指标体系,运用灰色关联投影法(GRPM)模型对2004—2017年湖南省资源环境承载力警情现状进行分析,进而运用径向基函数神经网络(RBFNN)模型对2018—2022年湖南省资源环境承载力警情演变趋势进行预测,结果表明:①总体而言,2004—2017年,湖南省资源环境承载力的警情灰色关联投影值呈波动下降态势,警度由"重警"(橙灯)下降到"中警"(黄灯)。2018—2022年,其警情灰色关联投影值将进一步波动下降,但幅度不大,警度将保持"中警"(黄灯)不变。②就各子系统而言,2004—2017年,湖南省资源环境承载力各子系统的警情灰色关联投影值均有所下降,警度均由"重警"(橙灯)下降至"中警"(黄灯)。2018—2022年,资源承载力和生态承载力子系统将保持"中警"(黄灯)水平,环境承载力子系统将进一步下降至"轻警"(蓝灯)。③制约湖南省资源环境承载力警情缓解的主要因素包括人均耕地面积、单位工业增加值用水量、单位国土面积SO2排放强度、污水处理率、工业固体废物综合利用率、单位耕地面积化肥施用量、人均公园绿地面积、自然保护区面积占国土面积比重、湿地面积比重。

It is of great significance to carry out early warning research on resources and environment carrying capacity for promoting regional sustainable development and coordination of human-land relationship.Based on the connotation of resources and environment carrying capacity,the early warning index system of the carrying capacity of resources and environment in Hunan Province is constructed from three aspects,which are the resources carrying capacity,the environment carrying capacity and the ecology carrying capacity.Then,the warning status of resources and environment carrying capacity in Hunan Province from 2004 to 2017 is analyzed by using GRPM model,and the warning evolution trend of resources and environment carrying capacity in Hunan Province from 2018 to 2022 is predicted by using RBFNN model.The results show that:1)Overall,the grey correlation projection value of resources and environment carrying capacity warning in Hunan Province fluctuating downward,and the warning degree decreases from"heavy warning"(orange lamp)to"medium warning"(yellow lamp)in 2004-2017;the grey correlation projection value will further fluctuating downward in 2018-2022,but the range is small,and the warning degree will keep the"medium warning"(yellow lamp).2)In terms of each subsystem,the grey correlation projection values of each subsystem of resource and environmental carrying capacity in Hunan Province decreased in 2004-2017,and the warning degree decreased from"heavy warning"(orange lamp)to"medium warning"(yellow lamp).In 2018-2022,the resource carrying capacity and ecology carrying capacity subsystem will maintain the level of"medium warning"(yellow light),the environment carrying capacity subsystem will further decline to"light warning"(blue light).3)The main factors restricting the alleviation of resources and environment carrying capacity warning situation in Hunan Province include:per capita cultivated land area,per capita industrial added value water consumption,per capita land area SO2 emission intensity,sewage treatment rate,comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste,fertilizer application amount per unit farmland area,per capita green area of parks,proportion of the area of nature reserves in the land area,and wetland area proportion.