种养平衡理念下中国区域农田畜禽承载风险情景分析

The Senario Analysis of China’s Regional Livestock Carrying Capacity Risk of Farmland under the Principle of Planting-Breeding Balancing

为建立与耕地地力相匹配的畜禽养殖结构,探索三种畜禽粪肥资源化利用情境下的种养平衡空间格局,利用中国2005—2014年畜禽养殖量、作物产量分省数据测算了中国区域畜禽粪肥氮养分供给量和三种施肥养分供给占比(低水平35%、中等水平45%、高水平55%)情景下的区域农田畜禽承载,构建了区域农田畜禽承载风险系数并据此进行风险区划研究。结果表明:①中国绝大多数省份畜禽粪肥与植物需求不能达到种养平衡状态,中国区域农田畜禽承载存在区域性的风险。②中国区域畜禽粪肥氮养分供给量、中国区域植物氮养分需求量和中国区域农田畜禽承载风险分区均存在着明显的空间分异。"胡焕庸线"、800 mm等降水量线和"畜禽线"可作为空间分异的分界线。基于中国区域农田畜禽承载风险情景分析的结果,各省应因地制宜地制定相关政策引导畜禽业发展及粪肥的资源化利用。

Based on the statistical data of livestock and poultry breeding and crop yield in province-level in China during2005 and 2014,this paper calculate the regional nitrogen nutrient supply of livestock manure,the nitrogen requirements of plant and the regional livestock carrying capacity in three scenarios under the perspective of planting-breeding balance.And then the risk coefficient of China’s regional livestock carrying capacity of farmland is constructed for the regionalization study.The results show that the demand of livestock manure and plants can not reach the equilibrium state of planting and breeding in most provinces of China.There is regional risk in the livestock carrying capacity of farmland in China.And there exists demarcation line between the potential regions and the risk regions,it in line with the Hu Huanyong Line,precipitation lines of 800 millimeters and the Livestock and Poultry Line.Based on the above risk analysis,it is suggested that the development of livestock and poultry industry should be determined by land absorption capacity.And various farmland protection and subsidy mechanisms should be established for guiding the development of livestock and poultry industry and the resource utilization of livestock manure.