能源领域双层多段式碳排放驱动因素分析

"Double-layer"and"Multi-stage"driving factors analysis of carbon emissions in the energy field

能源领域是各省乃至全国如期实现碳达峰的主战场。开展能源领域碳排放驱动因素研究,对各省科学制定碳减排政策、规划降碳减碳路径具有积极意义。采用定性和定量相结合的方法,以中部某省为例,根据能源消费品种和终端消费部门2个层级,不同终端消费品种分段分解的方式,将2005—2020年某省能源领域碳排放分解成3个时期、7个终端消费部门和14种驱动因素。从分解结果可得,具备正向效应的碳排放驱动因素包括GDP、人均可支配收入、交通工具数量和总发电量,负向效应的驱动因素主要是各终端部门的能源消费强度;2005—2010年和2010—2015年最大负向驱动因素为终端能源消费强度,占比分别为-65.9%和-51.1%,2015—2020年的最大负向驱动因素转为经济结构,占比为-14%,生产总值对3个时期碳排放增长的正向贡献度最大,分别为78.2%、49.9%和23.1%;从2010年、2015年和2020年3个关键节点年的贡献率雷达图可以看出,经济对碳排放的贡献率仍为正,但逐渐降低,能源消费强度的负向贡献率逐渐降低表明该省经济发展与碳排放还未完全脱钩,但整体向着脱钩趋势发展。从能源消费强度对碳排放的驱动效应减小这一结果可得,仅通过能耗双控政策来控制能源消费总量和能源消费强度对节能有较大作用,但对双碳目标的实现影响较小,为确保双碳目标如期实现,能耗双控向碳排放双控转变是关键,下一步将聚焦碳排放总量和碳排放强度降低的路径探索。

The energy field is the main battlefield for provinces and even the whole country to achieve carbon peak as scheduled.Carrying out the research on driving factors of carbon emissions in the energy field has positive significance for all the provinces to scientifically formulate carbon-reduction policies and plan carbon reduction paths.This paper adopted a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods.Taking a province in central China as an example,according to the two levels of energy consumption varieties and terminal consumption departments,different terminal consumption varieties were segmented decomposition,the carbon emissions in the energy field of the province from 2005 to 2020 were decomposed into three periods,seven terminal consumption sectors and 14 driving factors.From the decomposition results,the driving factors of carbon emissions with positive effects include GDP,per capita disposable income,the number of vehicles and total power generation,while the driving factors with negative effects are mainly the energy consumption intensity of each terminal department.The largest negative driving factors of carbon emissions in 2005—2010 and 2010—2015 is the terminal energy consumption intensity,which accountes for-65.9%and-51.1%,respectively.The largest negative driving factor of 2015—2020 is the economic structure,accounting for-14%,the positive contribution of GDP to the growth of carbon emissions in the three periods are the largest,which are 78.2%,49.9%and 23.1%respectively.From the radar chart of contribution rate in the three key node years of 2010,2015 and 2020,the economy's contribution to carbon emissions is still positive,but gradually decreasing.The negative contribution rate of energy consumption intensity is gradually decreasing,indicating that the economic development of the province is not completely decoupled from carbon emissions,but the overall trend is towards decoupling.As can be seen from the result that the driving effect of energy consumption intensity on carbon emissions is reduced,controlling the total energy consumption and energy consumption intensity only through the policy of"dual control of energy consumption"has a great effect on energy conservation,but has little impact on the realization of the dual carbon goal.In order to ensure the scheduled realization of the dual carbon goal,the key is to change from"dual control of energy consumption"to"dual control of carbon emission".The next step will focus on exploring ways to reduce total carbon emissions and carbon intensity.