山西省规下工业煤炭消费量现状与趋势

Status quo and trend of industrial coal consumption in Shanxi Province

依据山西省典型地市“十三五”期间全社会口径煤炭消费统计结果,梳理分析山西省规下工业煤炭消费现状特征,总结现存规下工业煤炭消费的重点行业、用煤原因及环节,并基于ARIMA模型预测分析至2030年山西省规下工业煤炭消费量,提出规下工业企业煤炭消费减量工作建议,助力双碳目标进程的实现。研究表明,“十三五”期间山西省规下工业企业煤炭消费量呈现明显下降趋势,符合规定的工业企业煤炭消费量占第二产业煤炭消费总量比重目前已不足10%。根据规定,工业燃煤治理政策实施成效显著,耗煤行业数量趋减并以电力热力行业为主导。ARIMA(0,1,0)模型预测效果良好,2012—2019年平均相对误差仅为2.27%,预测结果表明2021—2030年山西省规下工业煤炭消费量将以平缓速度下降,至2030年将降至72万t。

According to the survey results of coal consumption in the whole society during the"13th Five-Year Plan"period of typical cities in Shanxi Province,this paper sorts out and analyzes the current characteristics of industrial coal consumption under the regulations in Shanxi Province,summarizes the key industries,causes and links of coal consumption under the existing regulations,and predicts and analyzes the industrial coal consumption under the regulations in Shanxi Province by 2030 based on the ARIMA model,and puts forward suggestions for reducing the coal consumption of industrial enterprises under the regulations to help the realization of the dual carbon goal process.The results show that during the"13th Five-Year Plan"period,the coal consumption of industrial enterprises in Shanxi Province showed a significant downward trend,and the proportion of coal consumption of industrial enterprises under the regulations to the total coal consumption of the secondary industry is now less than 10%.The implementation of industrial coal-fired treatment policies under the regulations has achieved remarkable results,and the number of coal-consuming industries has been reduced,dominated by the power and heat industry.The ARIMA(0,1,0)model predicts well,with an average relative error of only 2.27%from 2012 to 2019.The prediction results show that industrial coal consumption will decline at a flat rate under the regulations in Shanxi Province from 2021 to 2030,and will drop to 720000 tons by 2030.