国际货币发行国与使用国的博弈关系与利益协调因素

Game Relationship and Factors of Interest Coordination between the Issuing and User Country of International Currencies

基于国际货币发行国和使用国的利益风险因素及其关键博弈指标,结合国际货币基金组织(IMF)官网和世界银行数据库1995—2018年数据,构建货币发行国和使用国完全信息的一次博弈模型和重复博弈模型,研究表明,货币发行国和使用国均采用合作策略利于双方经济发展,反之亦然。其中,货币官方储备率、通货膨胀率、政治话语权和利息差是影响国际货币发行国与使用国利益平衡的关键因素。具体而言,货币发行国的官方储备率、通货膨胀率和政治话语权越高以及利息差越低,货币使用国的利益损害越大。建议团结多数国家推动世界国际货币及其支付系统的多元化,并对国际货币发行国高通胀、负利率、金融制裁等进行约束,降低国际货币霸权对世界的威胁;在推动人民币国际化过程中,不仅应该秉持利益共赢理念,依据国情适度控制资本自由兑换节奏,降低中国的风险,而且也应该保持人民币价值基本稳定,扩大货币互换协议的范围,建立人民币回流渠道和人民币投资产品等,提高人民币使用国的利益。

This study constructs a single and repeated game model with the complete information of the issuing and user country of currencies.This model is based on the interest and risk factors,as well as the key gaming indicators of the issuing and user country of international currencies,combined with the consideration of the 1995-2018 data from the International Monetary Fund(IMF)official website and the World Bank database.The results demonstrate that when both the issuing and user country of currencies adopt a cooperative strategy,it will be conducive to the economic development of both sides,and vice versa.Among all factors,the official currency reserve ratio,inflation rate,power of discourse in politics,and interest margin are the key factors that influence the balance of interests between the issuing and user country of international currencies.Specifically,the higher the official reserve ratio,inflation rate,and power of discourse in politics of the country of currency issue,and the lower its interest margin,the greater the negative impact on the interests of the user country.Therefore,it is suggested that more countries pursue the diversification of the world’s international currencies and payment system to restrain high inflation,negative interest rates,and issuing country’s financial sanctions of international currencies,to reduce international currency hegemony’s threat to the world.When fostering the internationalization of the RMB,in addition to upholding the concept of win-win benefits,maintaining adequate control in the pace of the free exchange of capital is also recommended.This will reduce the risks China faces.It is also necessary to maintain a basically stable price of RMB,expand the scope currency swap agreements,build channels for the backflow of RMB,and provide RMB investment products to enhance the interests of RMB-using countries.