违约概率、融资成本与第三方增信效应:民营企业债样本分析

Probability of Default, Financing Costs, and Third-Party Credit Enhancement Effect: An Analysis of Private Corporate Bonds

基于近十年民营企业债券融资、增信特征以及民营企业债券融资增信支持体系的建设现状,选取2015—2019年民营企业及地方国有企业的信用债数据,对民营企业债券融资增信效果进行实证分析。结果表明,民营企业债券融资更容易受到债券违约冲击;不同增信方式对应的增信效果差异度较大,其中专业第三方增信对于降低债券融资成本的增信效果最佳;专业第三方增信机构中政府性融资担保机构层级越高,增信效果越好,选择与市场化增信机构联合增信,增信效果越好。基于实证结果,建议引导市场理性对待违约事件,充分发挥国家、地方担保基金作用,政府性融资担保机构加大对民企债券融资支持力度,拓宽联合增信方式。

Based on private corporate bond financing during the past decade, credit enhancement characteristics, and the current status of the development of the credit enhancement support system for private corporate bond financing, in this study, we employ the debenture data of private and state-owned enterprises from 2015 to 2019 to conduct an empirical analysis of the effect of credit enhancement on corporate bond financing.The results demonstrate that private corporate bond financing is more susceptible to bond defaults, while the credit enhancement effect corresponding to different credit enhancement methods varies greatly, with professional third-party credit enhancement having the maximum effect on cost reduction of bond financing.Among the professional third-party credit enhancement agencies, the higher is the level of government financing guarantee agencies, the better is the credit enhancement effect if corporates choose to enhance credit with market-based credit enhancement agencies. Hence, the relevant government departments must guide the market to treat default events rationally, fully realize the role of national and local guarantee funds, encourage government financing guarantee agencies to increase support for private corporate bond financing, expand joint credit enhancement mechanisms, and establish a sound credit enhancement support system for private corporate bond financing.