中欧垂直专业化分工结构与就业效应研究

Research on Vertical Specialization Structure and Employment Effect between China and EU

文章基于WIOD世界投入产出表和社会经济账户数据(SEA),采用WWZ方法测算了2000~2014年中欧双边制造业与服务业垂直专业化水平与结构,并对中欧垂直专业化分工的就业效应进行实证检验。研究发现:从制造业来看,中国通过与欧盟的贸易往来,提升了其在全球价值链中的作用及地位。不过目前中国制造业GVC地位依旧落后于欧盟,但是差距在缩小。从服务业来看,中欧中间服务融合程度较高。中国进口中间服务的目的更多为下一个阶段出口,服务贸易出口结构与全球价值链地位得到一定的优化升级,而欧盟服务进口更多为自身消费,进一步再出口的比例在下降。总体来看,中欧垂直专业化分工提升了中国制造业就业水平,但对服务业就业有负向作用;对不同技能水平的劳动力就业和不同细分行业就业影响存在明显异质性。

As the largest developing country,the employment effect of China’s participation in the global value chain is a question worth exploring.Based on the World Input-Output Table and SEA data provided by WIOD,this paper uses WWZ method to measure the vertical specialization level and structure of manufacturing and service industries in China and EU from 2000 to 2014,and we distinguish labor force with different skill levels and conduct empirical tests on the employment effects of vertical specialization in China and EU.The findings are as follows:(1)From the perspective of manufacturing industry,China has enhanced its role and position in global value chain through trade with EU.China’s manufacturing GVC status still lags behind EU,but the gap is gradually narrowing.(2)From the perspective of service industry,China and EU have a higher degree of integration of intermediate services.The purpose of China’s import of intermediate services is more for the next stage of export,and the service trade export structure and global value chain status have been optimized and upgraded.The EU imports more services for its own consumption,and the proportion of re-exports is declining.(3)In general,vertical specialization in China and EU has promoted the employment level of manufacturing industry in China,but it has a negative effect on the employment of service industry.The impact of vertical specialization on labor employment in different skill levels and different sectors is obviously heterogeneous.