大城市的恐怖主义袭击风险识别与建模

Risk Identification and Modeling of Terrorist Attacks in Large Cities

大城市是人口、信息、资源的聚集地,汇聚了大量具有重要影响或高度象征意义的风险目标,是恐怖主义袭击的重点。对大城市的恐怖主义袭击风险进行识别与建模研究,对提高大城市的应急管理能力具有重要作用。采用定性与定量相结合的方法、案例分析法来分析大城市中恐怖袭击风险因素,其风险因素主要有三大类:基础设施风险、地理位置风险、国家安全风险等。在此基础上,构建了大城市恐怖袭击风险因素的模型,研究其整体联动效应,系统理解大城市在遭受恐怖袭击后,各个风险点的连接关系。研究发现,大城市的潜在风险因素较多,各风险因素之间具有联动性、脆弱性,此研究对防范化解重大恐怖袭击风险隐患,为应急管理方提供辅助决策具有一定的理论与现实意义。

Large cities are gathering places for population,information,and resources,gathering a large number of significant or highly symbolic risk targets,and are the focus of terrorist attacks.Identifying and modeling the risk of terrorist attacks in large cities plays an important role in improving their emergency management capabilities.Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods,case analysis method is used to analyze the risk factors of terrorist attacks in large cities.The risk factors mainly include three categories:infrastructure risk,geographical location risk,national security risk,etc.On this basis,a model of risk factors for terrorist attacks in large cities was constructed,and the overall linkage effect was studied to systematically understand the connection relationship between various risk points in large cities after being subjected to terrorist attacks.Research has found that there are many potential risk factors in big cities,and there is a linkage and vulnerability between each risk factor.This study has certain theoretical and practical significance for preventing and resolving major terrorist attack risks and providing certain auxiliary decision-making for emergency management.