农业劳动力价格与农产品价格波动的门槛效应研究

Study on the Threshold Effect in Fluctuations between Agricultural Labor Prices and Agricultural Product Prices

农业属劳动密集型产业,农业劳动力是农业生产中的核心生产要素,劳动力价格的波动影响农业生产成本,继而会对农产品价格产生影响。本文运用面板门槛模型,基于1998-2021年的农产品生产价格指数和劳动力价格数据,分析劳动力价格对农产品价格的影响,结果显示,农业劳动力价格对农产品价格的影响存在双重门槛效应,在第一重门槛下,劳动力价格上升将会导致农产品价格上升;而在第二重门槛下,劳动力价格上升将导致农产品价格下降。可以看出:劳动力价格的不同阶段对农产品价格产生的影响具有差异性。因此,需要着重将农业劳动力价格调整至合理区间,并使用技术和资本要素对冲劳动力价格上升对农产品价格的影响。基于此,应提高农业劳动力质量,提升农业劳动者素质;紧跟政策导向,实现农产品价格体系升级。

As a labor-intensive industry,agricultural labor is the core production factor in agricultural production.The fluctuation of labor price affects the cost of agricultural production,which in turn affects the price of agricultural products.This paper uses the panel threshold model to analyze the impact of labor price on the price of agricultural products based on the production price index of agricultural products and labor price data from 1998 to 2021.There is a double threshold effect of the price of agricultural labor on the price of agricultural products.Under the first threshold effect,higher labor prices will lead to higher agricultural prices;under the second threshold effect,higher labor prices will lead to lower agricultural prices.It means that the influence of different stages of labor price on agricultural product price is different.Therefore,it is necessary to focus on adjusting agricultural labor prices to a reasonable range and using technology and capital factors to hedge the impact of rising labor prices on agricultural product prices.Basing on these findings,this article suggest upgrading the pricing system of agricultural products through improving the quality of agricultural labor and Keeping up with policy guidance.