摘要
铜是全球走向净零排放道路上最关键的原材料,编制中国铜需求量指数对我国绿色低碳发展具有重要意义。本文首先选取了宏观经济领域及5个铜下游行业的32个指标构建中国铜需求量景气指数指标体系;其次,采用主客观赋权法结合确定指标权重,在此基础上选用月度指标数据编制景气指数;再次,根据界限值将景气度分为“偏热”“正常”“偏冷”三个区间,并输出景气信号灯;最后,分类预测32个指标,用延长一个月的数据编制景气指数作为其预测值。研究发现:景气指数与铜需求量增长率之间相关性较高,两者趋势基本保持一致;PMI调整对景气信号灯的预测精度有一定的提升效果。整体来看,该研究与国内铜需求量发展状况吻合良好,能为国内铜矿和铜材企业的生产计划、进出口计划提供前瞻性指导。
Copper is the most critical raw material on the global path towards net zero emissions,and compiling the China Copper Demand Index is of great significance for China’s green and low-carbon development.This article first selects 32 indicators from the macroeconomic field and 5 downstream copper industries to construct the index system of China’s copper demand and prosperity;Secondly,the subjective and objective weighting method is used to determine the weight of indicators,and on this basis,monthly indicator data is selected to compile the prosperity index;Once again,divide the prosperity into three intervals:“slightly hot”,“normal”,and“slightly cold”based on the threshold value,and output the prosperity signal light;Finally,classify and predict 32 indicators,and use the data extended by one month to prepare the prosperity index as its predicted value.Research has found that there is a high correlation between the prosperity index and the growth rate of copper demand,and the trends of the two are basically consistent;The adjustment of PMI has improved the prediction accuracy of both the prosperity index and the prosperity signal light.Overall,this study is in good agreement with the development of domestic copper demand,and can provide forward-looking guidance for the production and import and export plans of domestic copper and copper material enterprises.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2024年第3期138-143,223,共7页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
北方工业大学毓优团队培养计划项目(项目编号:107051360021XN083/045)
北方工业大学北京城市治理研究基地开放课题(110051360023XN277-02)
关键词
铜需求量
景气指数
预测研究
PMI调整
copper demand
prosperity index
predictive research
PMI adjustment