经济发展、收入提升对婚姻的影响研究——基于中国第五、六、七次人口普查数据的分析

Study on the Impact of Economic Development and Income Rise on Marriage——An Analysis based on data from the Fifth,Sixth and Seventh National Population Censuses of China

婚姻事关社会稳定和人口结构变迁,对婚姻的研究具有重要的现实意义。近年来,我国离婚率增加的趋势时常引起社会的广泛关注,学术界也在探讨离婚率持续走高的原因。与离婚率趋势高度相关的是经济发展水平,那么,经济发展是导致离婚率增加的因素吗?本文使用第五、六、七次人口普查数据,利用最小二乘法和工具变量法,实证检验经济发展与离婚率之间的因果关系。结果发现,经济越发达的县市,其离婚率越高。具体来说,经济发展水平解释了大约53.0%的离婚率差异。更重要的是,经济发展显著提高了平均受教育年限(人力资本),而且对于女性的促进作用大于男性。女性收入水平越高,离婚概率越大,这解释了为什么经济发展对女性的离婚率影响更大。为了遏制离婚率上升趋势,需要引导社会文化回归“家本位”。同时,肯定婚姻中女性的付出和牺牲,优化婚姻自由和婚姻权益保障的法律机制,使男女双方对婚姻持有积极态度。

Marriage is related to social stability and demographic changes,and the study of marriage has important practical significance.In recent years,the trend of increasing divorce demography in China has attracted widespread social attention,and aca-demics are also exploring the reasons for the persistently high divorce demography.Highly correlated with the trend of divorce de-mography is the level of economic development,so is economic development a factor leading to the increase of divorce demography?This paper uses data from the fifth,sixth,and seventh national population censuses to empirically test the causal relationship between economic development and divorce demography using the least squares and instrumental variables methods.The results find that the more economically developed a county or city is,the higher its divorce demography is.Specifically,the level of economic develop-ment explained approximately 53.0%of the variation in divorce demography.More importantly,economic development significantly increases the average number of years of schooling(human capital)and contributes more to females than males.The higher the level of female income,the higher the probability of divorce,which explains why economic development has a greater impact on the divorce demography for females.In order to curb the rising trend of divorce demography,it is necessary to guide the social culture back to the“family-oriented”.At the same time,it is necessary to recognize women's contributions and sacrifices in marriage,and optimize the legal mechanisms for the freedom of marriage and the protection of marital rights and interests,so that both men and women can have a positive attitude toward marriage.On the one hand,the research in this paper provides a theoretical explanation for the phe-nomenon of high divorce demography;On the other hand,it puts forward corresponding policy recommendations based on the find-ings of the study,which provides empirical evidence to support the government's introduction of relevant policies and measures.