中国货币互换对进出口贸易的非线性影响研究——基于“一带一路”国家(地区)数据分析

Research on the Nonlinear Impact of Chinese Currency Swap on Import and Export Trade——Based on data analysis of"the Belt and Road"countries(regions)

中国与共建“一带一路”国家的货币互换能够促进贸易畅通。本文聚焦于“一带一路”国家(地区),借助于Pearson相关系数与PSTR模型,分析双边货币互换协议(BCSA)的贸易效应。研究发现:货币互换规模与贸易规模呈现中等程度正相关关系;货币互换能够非线性影响进出口贸易。因此,当前在百年未有之大变局下,要注重保持和扩大央行货币互换规模的同时,通过完善货币互换资金的启动机制,建立标准化、可持续化、长期化的互换制度,构建固定化、标准化的货币互换协议文本等方式,以便为降低进出口贸易成本创造良好的货币互换环境。

Currency swaps between China and co-building"the Belt and Road"countries can facilitate smooth trade.This paper focuses on"the Belt and Road"countries(regions)and utilizes Pearson correlation coefficients and the PSTR model to analyze the trade effects of Bilateral Currency Swap Agreements(BCSA).The study finds that the scale of currency swaps is moderately positively correlated with trade volume and that currency swaps can nonlinearly impact import and export trade.Therefore,in the current unprecedented changes,it is important to focus on maintaining and expanding the scale of central bank currency swaps.By improving the initiation mechanism of currency swap funds,establishing standardized,sustainable,and long-term swap systems,and creating standardized currency swap agreement texts,a fixed and standardized currency swap environment can be created to reduce the cost of import and export trade.