我国石化行业碳减排实现路径研究

Research on the Implementation Path of Carbon Reduction in China’s Petrochemical Industry

在碳达峰、碳中和战略目标下,石化产业碳减排是实现我国“30·60”目标的关键。本文以我国石化行业为研究对象,基于1991-2021年统计数据,通过分位数回归模型和VEC模型的脉冲响应和方差分解法,建立石化行业碳排放影响因素的经济计量模型,探讨石化行业碳减排实现路径。研究结果表明:(1)技术水平、能源结构对二氧化碳排放的抑制作用随着分位数增加在逐渐增强,投资规模、产出规模对二氧化碳排放的促进作用在逐渐增强;(2)长期来看,技术水平、能源结构、投资规模和产出规模与二氧化碳排放量有长期均衡关系,各因素随机扰动项受到冲击后,技术水平、能源结构的响应是负向的,投资规模和产出规模的响应是正向的;(3)除自身影响外,对二氧化碳排放的贡献由大到小依次为技术水平、产出规模、投资规模和能源结构,但随着滞后期增加总体上呈递增态势,贡献率从滞后第2期的4.6%增长到滞后第10期的14.04%。根据研究结果,提出我国石化行业碳减排的主要实现路径:优化能源结构、发展低碳技术、优化产品结构和调整投资结构。

Under the strategic goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,Carbon emission reduction and carbon peak in petrochemical industry are the key to achieve China’s“30·60”goal.This article takes China’s petrochemical industry as the research object.Based on statistical data from 1991 to 2021,an econometric model of the factors affecting carbon emissions in the petrochemical industry is established which using quantile regression models and pulse response and variance de-composition methods of VEC models.The goal is to explore the path to achieving carbon emission reduction in the petrochemical industry.The results show that:(1)the inhibitory effect of technological level and energy structure on carbon dioxide emissions is gradually increasing with increasing quantiles,while the promoting effect of investment scale and output scale on carbon dioxide emissions is gradually increasing;(2)In the long run,there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between technological level,energy structure,investment scale,and output scale and carbon dioxide emissions.After the random disturbance term of each factor is impacted,the response of technological level and energy structure is negative,while the re-sponse of investment scale and output scale is positive;(3)In addition to its own impact,the contributions to carbon dioxide e-missions in descending order are technology level,output scale,investment scale,and energy structure.However,as the lag period increases,the overall trend shows a gradual increase,with the contribution rate increasing from 4.6%in the second lag period to 14.04%in the tenth lag period,it is further concluded that the main paths for China’s petrochemical industry to reach the carbon emission reduction are to optimize the energy structure,develop low-carbon technology,optimize the product structure and.adjust the investment structure.