全球木质林产品价格指数编制及其波动特征研究

Study on the Compilation and Fluctuation Characteristics of Global Price Index of Wood Forest Products

探寻全球木质林产品价格波动特征,规避价格波动风险,对维持我国木质林产品供需稳定具有重要意义。本文基于联合国粮农组织(FAO)提供的1961-2021年全球230个国家和地区的木质林产品年产量及进出口贸易的统计数据,选取原木等7类主要木质林产品作为代表性商品,分别测算其价格指数,继而以年进出口贸易总额为权重构建木质林产品综合价格指数,并采用谱分析方法研究其综合动态演变。结果表明:(1)全球木质林产品价格具有明显的波动性和上涨趋势。(2)全球木质林产品价格变化具有高度的协同性。(3)全球木质林产品价格存在着多周期性,且由于木质林产品之间存在稳定的联系,价格指数周期具有叠加性。

It is of great significance to explore the characteristics of global price fluctuation of woody forest products and avoid the risk of price fluctuation for maintaining the stability of supply and demand of woody forest products in China.Based on the statistical data of annual output and import and export trade of wood forest products from 230 countries and re-gions in the world from 1961 to 2021 provided by FAO,this paper selects seven kinds of main wood forest products such as logs as representative commodities,calculates their price indexes respectively,constructs the comprehensive price index of wood forest products with the total annual import and export trade as the weight,and studies its comprehensive dynamic evolution by spectral analysis method.The results show that:(1)The global price of wood forest products has obvious fluctua-tion and upward trend.(2)The global price changes of wood forest products are highly synergistic.(3)The global price of wood forest products is multi-cyclical,and because of the stable relationship between wood forest products,the price index cycles are superimposed.