智慧城市建设对“双碳”目标实现的影响研究——基于中介效应的省级面板数据实证分析

The Impact of Smart City Construction on the Achievement of“Dual Carbon”Goals——An empirical analysis based on provincial panel data using mediating effects

实现“碳达峰“”碳中和”是我国实施可持续发展战略的重要目标,也是新型智慧城市建设的应有之义。本文利用2012-2019年国内30个省、直辖市、自治区面板数据构建中介效应模型,检验智慧城市发展水平对“双碳”战略目标实现的影响。实证结果发现:智慧城市建设对城市碳排放具有显著的抑制作用,是城市绿色发展、国家“双碳”战略目标实现的重要促进变量。绿色全要素生产率在智慧城市建设和“双碳”战略之间发挥着显著的中介效应,智慧城市建设通过提升城市绿色发展的全要素生产率,显著地加快碳排放“双碳”战略步伐。因此,政府应加快智慧城市建设步伐,在智慧城市建设的顶层设计中融入“双碳”目标规划的理念和目标约束。同时,要建立健全基于绿色全要素生产率为基准的投入产出评价机制,实现智慧城市建设与“双碳”目标有机协同推进,将数字技术应用作为智慧城市建设的重要抓手,提高城市建设运行中的能源效率,降低碳排放强度,助力“双碳”目标的实现。

Achieving“carbon peak”and“carbon neutrality”are important goals for China’s sustainable development strategy and are also essential for the construction of new smart cities.This study uses provincial panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2019 to construct a mediating effects model and examines the impact of the development level of smart cities on the achievement of“dual carbon”goals.The empirical results show that smart city construction has a significant inhibitory effect on urban carbon emissions and is an important promoting variable for urban green development and the achievement of national“dual carbon”goals.Green total factor productivity plays a significant mediating role between smart city construction and“dual carbon”strategy.Smart city construction significantly accelerates the pace of carbon emission reduction by improving the green total factor productivity of urban green development.Therefore,the government should accelerate the pace of smart city construction,incorporate the concept and target constraints of“dual carbon”goals into the top-level design of smart city construction,establish a sound input-output evaluation mechanism based on green total factor productivi-ty,and achieve organic synergy between smart city construction and“dual carbon”goals.Digital technology should be used as an important lever for smart city construction to improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions,thereby helping to achieve“dual carbon”goals.