中国棉花进口与国内外市场价格传导效应研究

Research on the Price Transmission Effect Between China’s Cotton Imports and Cotton Prices in Domestic and International Markets

加入世界贸易组织后,中国棉纺织业迅速发展。为了解决国内棉花供需缺口,实现供需平衡,中国由棉花净出口国转变为净进口国。在分析中国棉花生产、需求及进口贸易特征基础上,综合使用斯皮尔曼等级相关系数、协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验,并对2001-2021年中国棉花进口量、棉花国际市场价格和国内棉花市场价格进行相关性和因果分析。研究发现,中国棉花进口量与国际市场价格之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,中国棉花进口量对国际市场棉花价格有显著影响;中国棉花进口量与国内棉花市场价格间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;棉花的国际市场价格与国内市场之间为单向传导。鉴于实证分析结果,建议全面统筹两个市场和两种资源,利用联合采购和战略采购模式争取市场主导权和定价权,提升中国棉花产业的国际竞争力,提高议价能力,加强与世界棉花主产国的合作。

After joining the World Trade Organization,China’s cotton textile industry has developed rapidly.In order to solve the gap between domestic cotton supply and demand and achieve the balance between supply and demand,China has changed from a net exporter of cotton to a net importer.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of China’s cotton production,demand and import trade,the correlation and causality analysis of China’s cotton import volume,international market price and domestic market price from 2001 to 2021 were conducted by using Spearman grade correlation coefficient,cointegration analysis and Granger causality test.It is found that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between China’s cotton import volume and the international market price,and China's cotton import volume has a significant impact on the international market price of cotton;There is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between China’s cotton import volume and domestic cotton market price.There is a one-way transmission between the international market price of cotton and the domestic market.In view of the empirical analysis results,it is suggested to comprehensively coordinate the two markets and two resources,use joint procurement and strategic procurement mode to strive for market dominance and pricing power,improve the international competitiveness of China’s cotton industry,improve bargaining power,and strengthen cooperation with the world's major cotton producing countries.