我国价格总水平走势的特征、预测和应对策略

The Characteristics,Predictions,and Response Strategies of the Overall Price Trend in China

物价问题与国民经济和民生福祉密切相关。本文首先对2023年价格总水平走势的基本特征进行分析,提出当前价格走势的新特点和值得关注的问题。在此基础上,预测2024年价格总水平的走势,即2024年CPI和PPI不具备大幅上涨的实际推动力,短期内依然会保持中低速增长。同时,应该看到,当前价格领域有较多新的影响因素,国家经济稳增长措施的实施、国际输入因素以及猪肉等重要产品价格走势不确定等因素,将对价格走势产生重要的影响。全面认识物价领域存在的风险和问题,做好价格管理工作,一方面,需要理论创新,以理论创新更好地指导实践,特别是关注财政政策实施对价格总水平走势可能产生的影响;另一方面,需要从实际问题入手,关注国内外重要商品价格变化及相互传导影响,做好民生价格管理工作。

The issue of prices is closely related to the national economy and people’s well-being.This article first analyzes the basic characteristics of the overall price trend in 2023,and proposes new characteristics and noteworthy issues of the current price trend.Based on this,it is predicted that the overall price level in 2024 won’t have the actual driving force for a significant increase in CPI and PPI,and will continue to maintain a medium to low growth rate in the short term.At the same time,it should be noted that there are many new influencing factors in the current price field,such as the implementation of national economic stability measures,international input factors,and uncertainty in the price trend of important products such as pork,which will have a significant impact on the price trend.To comprehensively understand the risks and problems in the field of price management,and to do a good job in price management,on the one hand,theoretical innovation is needed to better guide practice,especially focusing on the possible impact of fiscal policy implementation on the overall trend of price levels;On the other hand,it is necessary to start from practical problems,pay attention to the changes in prices of important domestic and foreign commodities and their mutual transmission effects,and to do a good job in managing people’s livelihood prices.