推进新型城镇化发展与加强地方政府债务管理研究——基于空间计量模型的实证分析

Research on Promoting New Urbanization and Strengthening Local Government Debt Management——Empirical analysis based on spatial econometric model

作为推动我国经济高质量发展的重要引擎,新型城镇化近年来取得了显著发展成果。伴随建设融资需求的与日俱增,新型城镇化发展离不开地方政府的资金支持。本文基于2010-2021年我国省级面板数据,构建空间杜宾模型探究地方政府债务对新型城镇化的影响效应。结果表明:新型城镇化存在空间集聚特征,表现出显著的正向空间溢出效应;地方政府债务对新型城镇化的影响呈非线性,且该空间溢出效应存在地区异质性。因此,加强地方政府债务管控对推动新型城镇化高质量发展与防范化解地方债务风险至关重要。

As an important engine to promote high-quality economic development in China,new urbanization has made remarkable progress in recent years.With the increasing demand for construction financing,the development of new urbanization cannot be separated from the financial support of local governments.Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2010 to 2021,this paper constructs a spatial Durbin model to explore the impact of local government debt on new urbanization.The results show that the new urbanization has the characteristic of spatial agglomeration,showing a significant positive spatial spillover effect;The influence of local government debt on new urbanization is non-linear,and the spatial spillover effect has regional heterogeneity.Therefore,strengthening the control of local government debt is crucial to promoting the high-quality development of new urbanization,and preventing and resolving local debt risks.