RCEP框架下贸易壁垒对出口产品的三元边际影响研究——基于数字服务贸易视角的分析

A Study on the Triple Marginal Impact of Trade Barriers on Export Products under the RCEP Framework——Analysis from the perspective of digital service trade

数字服务贸易的出现极大地降低了传统贸易壁垒的出现频率,导致像RCEP中新兴经济体国家为保护国内市场而新增了许多“虚拟”贸易壁垒。在此背景下,如果RCEP国家持续增加数字服务贸易限制类措施是否导致中国数字服务产品在不同贸易方向上的调整?本文根据联合国主要产品分类和国际服务贸易统计手册测度2008-2020年全球主要经济体数字服务贸易进出口商品数据,将数字服务贸易壁垒限制性指数作为衡量数字服务贸易壁垒的主要变量进行研究。实证结果显示:数字服务贸易壁垒对中国出口贸易扩展边际降低的贡献率较高,其中启动数字服务贸易限制预案的影响较明显,同时壁垒又促进了中国出口贸易数量边际和价格边际的增长;随着RCEP谈判的推进,以2012年为分界点,数字服务贸易壁垒对中国数字服务产品出口的冲击逐渐弱化,具体体现在2013-2020年三元边际均值的大幅度提升。最后,从推动互通融合发展、加强中国在国际市场话语权等方面提出政策建议。

The emergence of digital service trade has greatly reduced the frequency of traditional trade barriers,leading to many new“virtual”trade barriers in emerging economies like RCEP countries to protect their domestic markets.In this context,if RCEP countries continue to increase restrictions on digital service trade,whether it will lead to the adjustment of China’s digital service products in different trade directions or not is the key issue of this study.Based on the main product categories of the United Nations and the International Statistical Manual on Trade in Services,this paper measures the import and export commodity data of digital service trade of major economies in the world from 2008 to 2020,and takes the restrictive index of digital service trade barriers as the main variable to measure digital service trade barriers.The empirical analysis results show that digital service trade barriers have a higher contribution rate to the reduction of the expansion margin of China’s export trade,and the impact of the implementation of digital service trade restriction plan is more obvious.At the same time,the barriers also promote the growth of the quantity margin and price margin of China’s export trade.With the advancement of RCEP negotiations,taking 2012 as the cut-off point,the impact of digital service trade barriers on China’s exports of digital service products has gradually weakened,which is specifically reflected in the substantial improvement of the ternary marginal mean from 2013 to 2020.Finally,policy recommendations are put forward in terms of promoting the development of interoperability and integration and strengthening China’s discourse power in the international market.