我国省域经济韧性时空分异及其影响因素研究

The Spatial-Temporal Differentiation and Influence Factor of Economic Resilience in China

提升区域经济韧性是新时期应对复杂国内外局势的必然要求。本文从风险、稳定、流通和创新四个维度构建经济韧性评价体系,对我国2007-2020年31个省市的经济韧性及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明:我国区域经济发展韧性较为强劲,整体呈现上升趋势;存在明显区域差异,中部和西部滞后于东部地区;直辖市、长三角和珠三角地区、陕西经济韧性水平提升较快;经济系统风险性、稳定性持续增强,流通性小幅波动,创新趋势向好;产业结构多样化、人力资本、创新投入、企业家精神以及消费能力对经济韧性具有显著正向影响。基于此,应推进区域经济协调发展、拓展地区内外协同合作、大力推进科技创新、改善营商环境,提高我国省域经济韧性。

Enhancing regional economic resilience is an inevitable requirement for dealing with complex domestic and international situationss in the new era.This paper constructed an economic resilience evaluation system from the four dimensions of risk,stability,circulation and innovation.It estimated the economic resilience and analysed influencing factors of 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2020.The results showed that:The economic resilience of China is relatively strong,showing an overall upward trend.There are significant regional differences,with the central and western regions lagging behind the eastern regions.The municipalities directly under the central government,the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta,Shanxi's economic resilience improved rapidly.The stability index and risk index continued to increase.There was little change of circulation index.Innovation index is slowly rising.The variety of industrial structures,human capital,innovation investment,entrepreneurship and consumption ability had a significant positive impact on economic resilience.To enhance economic resilience,we should promote coordinated development of regional economy,expand collaborative cooperation within and outside the region,vigorously promote scientific and technological innovation,improve the business environment.