多种延迟退休方案下企业基本养老保险支出预测研究

Prediction of the Payment of Basic Pension Insurance Funds by Enterprises Under Various Delayed Retirement Scheme

明确企业基本养老保险费用支出,是企业衡量人力成本的重要依据,也是国家应对老龄化改革的必然要求。《第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要》强调按照小步调整、弹性实施、分类推进、统筹兼顾原则,逐步延迟法定退休年龄。按此原则设计出四种延迟退休方案,分别测算出各方案下2020-2060年企业缴纳基本养老保险金总额和不同企业类型缴费数额,并与现行退休模式下的预测值比较分析。测算结果显示:企业在积极弹性退休方案下的缴费压力最大,最大缴费值增加38.79%;在稳健弹性退休方案下的缴费压力最小,最大缴费值增加19.04%;各方案下私营企业均成为缴费数额最大的企业类型。建议政府在制定方案时分类推进,对缴费压力较大的企业实施更多优惠政策,妥善解决人口老龄化带来的就业问题。

Calculating the basic endowment insurance expenditure of enterprises is an important basis for enterprises to measure human costs,and also an inevitable requirement for the country to deal with the aging reform.The"14th Five-Year Plan"and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035 clearly stated that the statutory retirement age should be gradually delayed in accordance with the principles of small-step adjustment,flexible implementation,classified promotion,and overall consideration.According to these principles,this paper designs four delayed retirement plans,and calculates the total amount of basic pension insurance contributions paid by enterprises in 2020-2060 under each plan and the amount of contributions paid by different types of enterprises,compares and analyzes the predicted values under the current retirement model.The calculation results show that companies under the active and flexible retirement plan have the greatest contribution pressure,with the maximum contribution value increasing by 38.79%;under the stable and flexible retirement plan,the contribution pressure is the smallest,and the maximum contribution value has increased by 19.04%;private enterprises have become the type of business with the largest payment amount.It is recommended that the government should implement different policies when formulating the plan,implement more preferential policies for enterprises with greater pressure to pay,and properly solve the employment problem caused by the aging of the population.