杠杆率对房地产市场价格的影响研究

Research on the influence of leverage ratio on real estate market price

深入研究杠杆率对房地产市场价格的影响,有助于我国更好地构建杠杆率监管框架和调控房地产市场价格。本文选择我国省级面板数据,研究杠杆率对房地产市场价格的影响作用和传导机制,并进行稳健性检验。研究发现:居民部门和房地产企业部门的杠杆率对房地产市场价格均存在正向的促进作用;在杠杆率影响房地产市场价格的过程中,市场价格预期起中介作用;购房杠杆在杠杆率影响房价过程中起单一门限调节作用。因此,要稳房价、稳预期,推动房地产业向新发展模式平稳过渡;科学合理及有效地监管房地产市场中各企业的杠杆率,控制居民杠杆率;因城施策实施差别化住房信贷政策,推动房地产行业平稳健康发展。

A thorough study of the impact of leverage on real estate market prices will help China better build a regulatory framework for leverage and regulate real estate market prices.This paper selects the provincial panel data of China to study the impact and transmission mechanism of leverage ratio on the real estate market price,and carries out the robustness test.The research finds that the leverage ratio of the residential sector and the real estate enterprise sector has a positive effect on the real estate market price;In the process of leverage affecting the real estate market price,the market price expectation plays an intermediary role;The house purchase leverage plays a single threshold adjustment role in the process of leverage affecting the house price.Therefore,it is necessary to scientifically and reasonably supervise the leverage ratio of enterprises in the real estate market,control the leverage ratio of residents,and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry through differential regulation.