稳定城市房价对产业结构升级的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Stable Urban Housing Prices on Industrial Structure Upgrading

为了更好地反映稳定城市房价对产业结构升级的影响作用,基于2003-2020年104个地价动态监测城市的面板数据,通过构建动态面板模型,在控制运输条件、商业条件、科技条件、城市气候条件等变量的前提下,分别对房价影响产业结构升级、第二产业产出、第三产业产出的总体效应进行定量测度。研究发现:(1)稳定城市房价对产业结构升级具有促进作用;(2)稳定城市房价对第二产业的产出具有提升作用;(3)稳定城市房价对第三产业产出具有促进作用,并且城市宜居性的提高显著促进了第三产业产出水平的提高。基于此,应坚持“房住不炒”,因地制宜地对城市产业等进行空间布局,完善住房保障体系。

In order to better reflect the influence of stable urban housing prices on industrial structure upgrading,based on the panel data of 104 cities with dynamic land price monitoring from 2003 to 2020,a dynamic panel model is built.Under the premise of controlling transport,commercial,science and technology,urban climate conditions and other variables,the overall effect of housing price on industrial structure upgrading,the output of the secondary industry and the output of the tertiary industry are quantitatively measured.The results show that:(1)Stabilizing urban housing price promotes the upgrading of industrial structure;(2)Stabilizing urban housing prices can promote the output of the secondary industry;(3)Stabilizing urban housing prices can promote the output of the tertiary industry,and the improvement of urban livability can significantly promote the improvement of the output level of the tertiary industry.Based on this,we should adhere to the principle of"housing residence instead of vicious speculation",design the spatial layout of urban industries according to local conditions,and improve the housing security system.