中国与RCEP伙伴国贸易效率及其发展潜力研究

Research on Trade Efficiency and Development Potential between China and RCEP Partners

充分挖掘中国与RCEP伙伴国的贸易潜力,对推动RCEP建设具有重要意义。本文基于中国与RCEP伙伴国的贸易数据,通过构建随机前沿引力模型进行实证研究。研究发现:(1)中国及RCEP贸易伙伴国的GDP、中国人口总量,相邻边界、是否沿海和自由贸易协定都对贸易总额具有显著的正向影响,距离对贸易总额具有显著的负向影响;(2)从贸易非效率模型的解释变量来看,交通基础设施建设水平和贸易自由度能够抵消贸易非效率的影响,是推动双边贸易的积极因素;(3)中国与RCEP伙伴国的贸易效率还有较大提升空间,贸易拓展空间也较大。未来,应从提升贸易自由度、提高交通基础设施建设水平、采取差异化的贸易政策等方面着手,加强与RCEP伙伴国的贸易合作。

It is of great significance to fully tap the trade potential between China and RCEP partner countries to promote the construction of RCEP.Based on the trade data between China and RCEP partners,this paper conducts an empirical study by constructing a stochastic frontier gravity model.The research finds that:(1)GDP,China’s total population,neighboring borders,whether coastal areas and free trade agreements of China and RCEP trade partners have significant positive effects on total trade,while distance has significant negative effects on total trade;(2)From the explanatory variables of the trade inefficiency model,the level of transport infrastructure construction and trade freedom can offset the impact of trade inefficiency,which is a positive factor to promote bilateral trade;(3)The trade efficiency between China and its RCEP partners still has much room for improvement and trade expansion.In the future,trade cooperation with RCEP partner countries should be strengthened by enhancing trade freedom,improving the level of transportation infrastructure construction,and adopting differentiated trade policies.