中国菲利普斯曲线形态的计量检验——基于产出缺口适用性视角的分析

The Econometric Test of Phillips Curve Shape in China——Analysis based on the perspective of output gap applicability

遴选合意方法科学测度产出缺口是刻画中国经济增长特征、准确测定菲利普斯曲线形态的重要前提。为此,本文创设了一套系统的产出缺口适用性评价方法,详细评估了各类产出缺口针对中国数据的适用性,并据此重新估计菲利普斯曲线。通过研究发现:不同方法测得的产出缺口具有明显的性能差异。其中,利用Kalman滤波测得的产出缺口在计量评价中的综合表现最佳。随后,将Kalman缺口引入新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线模型估计后发现,产出缺口系数高度显著,这充分证明了中国菲利普斯曲线并未消亡,依照菲利普斯曲线关系进行宏观政策的设计与调整仍然是化解通胀风险、稳定增长形态的有效途径。

Selecting a consensus method to scientifically measure the output gap is an important prerequisite for describing the characteristics of China’s economic growth and accurately determining the shape of the Phillips curve.To this end,this paper creates a set of systematic evaluation methods for the applicability of output gaps,evaluates in detail the applicability of various output gaps to Chinese data,and re-estimates the Phillips curve accordingly.Through the research,it found that the output gap measured by different methods has obvious performance differences.Among them,the output gap measured by Kalman filter has the best comprehensive performance in the measurement evaluation.Subsequently,after introducing the Kalman gap into the new Keynes-Phillips curve model estimation,it discovered that the output gap coefficient was highly significant,which fully proved that the Phillips curve in China has not died out,and the design and adjustment of macroeconomic policies based on the relationship between the Phillips curve still remains It is an effective way to resolve inflation risks and stabilize the growth pattern.