输配电价监管下电网投资策略优化研究——基于输配电价、电网投资与社会经济效益关系的视角

Research on the optimization of power grid investment strategy under the supervision of transmission and distribution price——Based on the relationship between transmission and distribution price, power grid investment and socioeconomic benefits

结合当前输配电价监管和电网投资对区域社会经济效益的价值贡献,建立电网投资、社会经济效益指数与输配电价关系模型。基于社会经济效益指数的不确定性,开展预期输配电价概率分析,并通过优化投资策略,降低核价风险。研究结果表明:输配电价、电网投资与社会经济效益指数存在递阶关系,而提升监管初期效率效益指数水平有助于降低电价核减风险。因此,应适时优化投资策略,尽量在监管初期多安排效率效益较高类型项目投资,扩大投资规模。

Combined with the current transmission and distribution price supervision and the value contribution of grid investment to regional socioeconomic benefits,the relationship model between grid investment and socioeconomic benefits index,and transmission and distribution price,are established.And based on the uncertainty of the socioeconomic benefits index,probability analysis of the expected transmission and distribution price is carried out,and the investment strategy is optimized in order to reduce the risk of price approval.The research results show that there is a hierarchical relationship between transmission and distribution price,grid investment and socioeconomic benefit index,and improving the efficiency and benefit level at the initial stage of supervision will help reduce the risk of electricity price reduction.Therefore,the investment strategy should be timely optimized,and more investment of high-efficiency projects should be arranged as much as possible at the initial stage of supervision,in order to expend the scale of investment.