保障性租赁住房发展思路:基于对新市民住房需求特点的研究

Research on the Development of Government-subsidized Rental Housing——Based on the Housing Demand Characteristics of the New Citizens

基于中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS)和人口普查数据,本文对保障性租赁住房的供应主体——新市民的区域分布特点、人口结构特征以及居住特点进行定量分析。研究发现:以新市民为主的流动人口在空间上高度集聚,深圳、上海、广州、东莞和北京五个城市人口净流入量占全国的1/3,长三角、珠三角两大城市群人口净流入量占全国的一半以上,约60%的跨省流动人口集聚于广东、浙江、上海、江苏、北京五省市;新市民年龄集中在28-33岁,受教育水平相对较高,单人户占比较高且不断上升,就业层次和收入水平较低;住房自有率低于60%,房价收入比较高但租金收入比相对较低,租房质量问题需关注。在此基础上,结合部分地区发展保障性租赁住房的探索经验,提出现阶段我国保障性租赁住房的发展思路,即突出因地制宜、需求导向、租住品质、统筹协调,各地结合实际情况明确保障性租赁住房在住房供给体系中的定位,多途径增加保障性租赁住房房源,多措并举提升保障性租赁住房质量,加强保障性租赁住房发展与其他制度改革和政策完善的协同。

Based on the data from the China Family Panel Studies and the National Census,this paper quantitatively analyzes the regional characteristics,demographic characteristics and living status of new citizens.We found that the floating population which is mainly new citizens,is highly concentrated.The research found that the floating population,mainly new citizens,is highly concentrated in space.Shenzhen,Shanghai,Guangzhou,Dongguan and Beijing account for1/3 of the country’s net population inflow;the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations account for more than half of the country’s net population inflow;About 60%of the inter-provincial floating population gathers in Guangdong,Zhejiang,Shanghai,Jiangsu,and Beijing;New citizens are concentrated in the age group of 28-33,with a relatively high level of education,a high and rising proportion of single-person households,and low levels of employment and income;The housing ownership rate is lower than 60%,the housing price income is relatively high but the rental income ratio is relatively low,and the quality of rental housing needs to be paid attention to.Combined with the local experience of some cities,this paper provides suggestions for the development of government-subsidized rental housing,that is,local government should clarify the status of government-subsidized rental housing in the housing supply system,increase the supply of government-subsidized rental houses in multiple ways,and take more measures to improve the quality.In addition,the incoordination between the development of government-subsidized rental housing and other institutional reforms and policies should be promoted.