社会养老保险对我国新业态灵活就业人员生育意愿影响研究

Research on the Influence of Social Endowment Insurance on the Fertility Willingness of Flexible Employment Personnel in China’s New Business Type

近年来,共享经济与平台经济发展迅速,新业态灵活就业人员群体不断扩大。相较于其他就业群体,灵活就业人员具有年轻化、劳动关系模糊、社会保障不足等特征。如何在提高灵活就业人员社会养老保障程度的同时,平衡其生育意愿对提高社会福利、缓解人口老龄化具有重要意义。在此背景下,本文结合两期家庭决策模型的理论分析结果,利用中国劳动力动态调查2018年数据,探究社会养老保险对灵活就业人员二孩生育意愿及生育子女数量的影响,并进一步探究不同类别社会养老保险对生育意愿影响的差异。结果表明:社会养老保险普遍对生育意愿存在挤出效应,但“新农保”对生育意愿存在显著正向影响,在进一步引入“养儿防老”作为调节变量后呈现显著负向影响,这表明在农村地区子女养老依旧是首选养老模式,且“养儿防老”等传统观念会降低社会养老保险带来的挤出效应。基于此,提出社会养老保险与生育政策挂钩、提高灵活就业女性群体生育保障、完善农村社会养老保险等建议。

In recent years,the sharing economy and platform economy have developed rapidly,and the group of flexible employees in new industries has been expanding.Compared with other employment groups,flexible employment personnel are characterized by youth,vague labor relations and insufficient social security.How to balance the fertility will of flexible employees while improving their social pension security is of great significance to improve social welfare and alleviate the aging of the population.Under this background,this paper combines the theoretical analysis results of the two period family decision-making model,and uses the 2018 data of the China Labor Force Dynamic Survey to explore the impact of social pension insurance on the second child birth intention and the number of children born of flexible employees,and further explore the differences in the impact of different types of social pension insurance on the birth intention.The results show that social endowment insurance generally has crowding out effect on childbearing willingness,but the"new rural insurance"has a significant positive impact on childbearing willingness,showing a significant negative impact after further introducing"raising children to prevent old age"as an adjusting variable,which indicates that children’s pension is still the preferred pension mode in rural areas,and traditional concepts such as"raising children to prevent old age"will reduce the crowding out effect of social endowment insurance.Based on this,this paper puts forward some suggestions,such as linking social endowment insurance with fertility policy,improving fertility security for flexible employment female groups,and improving rural social endowment insurance.