我国生态环境与经济协调发展仿真研究——基于对湖南省数据的分析

Simulation Study on the Coordinated Development of Ecological Environment and Economy in China——Analysis based on system dynamics and scenario partition method

为推动生态环境与经济社会协调发展,探究经济、社会等因素对生态环境的影响,本文基于系统动力学方法,从经济、社会、资源、环境四方面构建生态环境仿真模型,并提取模型中的关键指标及调节因子,划分延续发展型、经济优先型、环境优先型、可持续发展型四种“生态-经济”情景,结合基于生态足迹理论与组合权重赋权法的生态环境评价模型,开展生态环境仿真模拟与评价。以湖南省为例,开展生态环境仿真研究,结果表明:2019-2025年湖南省实行可持续发展型对策更有利于生态环境保护与经济社会发展。基于此,提出推动经济体系优化升级、鼓励生态技术革新、加大关键核心技术攻关和科技创新、提高群众环保意识等建议。

Based on the system dynamics method,this paper constructs an ecological environment simulation model from four aspects of economy,society,resources,and environment,promotes the coordinated development of the ecological environment and economic society,and explores the impact of economic and social factors on the ecological environment.The article extracts the key indicators and adjustment factors in the model,and divides four"ecological-economic"scenarios:continuous development,economic priority,environment priority,and sustainable development.Combined with the ecological environment evaluation model based on the ecological footprint theory and the combined weighting method,carry out the simulation and evaluation of the ecological environment.Taking Hunan Province as an example,carry out ecological environment simulation research.The results show that the implementation of sustainable development strategies in Hunan Province from 2019 to 2025 is more conducive to ecological environmental protection and economic and social development.Based on this,suggestions are put forward to promote the optimization and upgrading of the economic system,encourage ecological technology innovation,increase key core technology research and technological innovation,and improve the public’s awareness of environmental protection.