“双碳”目标下中国LNG进口风险评价及防范研究

Research on Risk Assessment and Prevention of China's LNG Import under the"Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality"Goal

在“双碳”目标指引下,天然气供需量将进一步扩大,进口LNG成为短期内弥补供需缺口的重要增量,我国LNG贸易进入快速发展期。作为全球最大的天然气和LNG进口国,为降低我国LNG进口风险以保障能源安全,从资源、政治、经济、运输、市场方面识别LNG进口风险因素,设计LNG进口风险三级评价指标体系,通过熵权法对15个主要来源国家的进口风险进行评价。评价结果表明:2016-2021年,特立尼达和多巴哥、安哥拉、尼日利亚、秘鲁的综合风险程度较高,每个国家五个维度的风险值因年而异。基于评价结果,提出从来源国选择、资源、运输、市场等方面降低我国LNG进口风险:建议对高、中、低风险国家分别采取慎重、稳固、加强合作策略;加大对国内天然气资源开发和国外资源风险评估以降低资源风险;加强LNG运力建设,以保障运输安全;加快建设中国天然气交易市场,提高LNG进口定价的话语权。

Under the guidance of the"dual carbon"goal,the supply and demand of natural gas will further expand,and the import of LNG will become an important increment to fill the supply and demand gap in the short term.China's LNG trade enters a rapid development period.As the world's largest natural gas and LNG importer,in order to reduce LNG import risks in China and ensure energy security,this paper identified LNG import risk factors from the aspects of resources,politics,economy,transportation,and market,designed a three-level evaluation index system for LNG import risks,and evaluated the import risks of 15 main source countries through entropy weight method.The evaluation results showed that in 2016-2021,Trinidad and Tobago,Angola,Nigeria,and Peru had a high overall risk level,with the risk values of five dimensions in each country varying from year to year.Based on the evaluation results,this paper proposed to reduce the risk of China's LNG import in terms of source country selection,resources,transportation,and market;Adopt prudent,stable,and strengthened cooperation strategies for high,medium,and low risk countries,respectively;Increase the development of domestic natural gas resources and risk assessment of foreign resources to reduce resource risks;Strengthen the construction of LNG transportation capacity to ensure transportation safety;Accelerate the construction of China's natural gas trading market and improve the voice of LNG import pricing.