数字金融发展对区域性金融风险影响效应研究——基于社会过滤因子的调节效应分析

Research on the Impact of Digital Finance Development on Regional Financial Risks——Analysis of regulatory effects based on social filtering factors

数字金融的发展在缓解资金约束、提高金融资源配置效率的同时,也可能由于数字技术和数字金融的特征而放大金融风险。本文选择2010-2020年省级面板数据,分析数字金融发展对区域金融风险的影响,并进一步探索社会过滤因子的调节效应。实证发现:数字金融发展会显著增加区域金融风险水平。在两个社会过滤变量中,在市场化水平越高的地区,有更强的金融创新风险抵御能力,数字金融对区域金融风险的正影响越弱;房价上涨率对数字金融与区域金融风险关系也存在逆向调节作用,但仅在股票市场领域成立,针对银行业、房地产市场、地方政府债务三个领域风险并不存在显著的调节作用。基于此,提升市场化水平、将房价上涨率控制在合理区间有助于化解数字金融发展所带来的金融风险。

The development of digital finance not only alleviates capital constraints and improves the efficiency of financial resource allocation,but also may amplify financial risks due to the characteristics of digital technology and digital finance.This article selects provincial panel data from 2010 to 2020 to analyze the impact of digital finance development on regional financial risks,and further explores the regulatory effects on social filtering factors.Empirical results show that the development of digital finance will significantly increase the level of regional financial risk.Among two social filtering variables,the higher the level of marketization,the stronger the ability to resist financial innovation risks,and the weaker the positive impact of digital finance on regional financial risks;The rate of house price inflation also has a reverse regulatory effect on the relationship between digital finance and regional financial risks,but it is only established in the stock market field,and does not have a significant regulatory effect on the risks in the banking industry,real estate market,and local government debt.Based on this,improve the level of marketization and control the rate of house price inflation within a reasonable range can help resolve the financial risks brought by the development of digital finance.